The inexact poll
Allright, this is a Hotline poll and I don't know the methodology, so don't take it to the bank, but there's some interesting little tidbits in it, nonetheless.
Their basic idea was to compare those with strong approval for Bush with Republicans in general. ("Is Bush a great president or the greatest president.") It is Hotline after all. (Small sample size.)
ALSO, I forgot to mention this bit in the poll. Of those who "strongly approve" of Bush, the "reelect Representative" number was only 42%. Even if the Bush base is seperate from the congressional base, a 42% commitment can't make House members facing reelection in 8 months feel very good. Certainly, part of that is "reds" living in blue districts, but I would guess that number is well less than half.
Their basic idea was to compare those with strong approval for Bush with Republicans in general. ("Is Bush a great president or the greatest president.") It is Hotline after all. (Small sample size.)
This is Bush's base (approx. 45% of the entire GOP). According to the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, they're older (more than half are over 55 which translates into being "very likely" midterm voters), go to church weekly, and almost all of them are white. They oppose abortion rights, and, like VP Cheney himself, they listen to Rush and O'Reilly.
ALSO, I forgot to mention this bit in the poll. Of those who "strongly approve" of Bush, the "reelect Representative" number was only 42%. Even if the Bush base is seperate from the congressional base, a 42% commitment can't make House members facing reelection in 8 months feel very good. Certainly, part of that is "reds" living in blue districts, but I would guess that number is well less than half.
posted by mikevotes at
12:26 PM
2 Comments:
Tantalising and bloody frustrating. Quote: The sample size for Strong Bush approvers is 273. So what is the actual sample size?
As you say, it would be helpful to know the methodology too, if not have actual access to the raw data. I couldn't get through to the parent site - bugmenot let me down :(
I note that some of the commentary - "But among the most die-hard Bushies, most think he's been as good or better..." could have been arrived at without the need for polling. Sort of a no-brainer!
I don't know if the odd headlines I've seen recently refer to this poll or others, the figures seem familiar. Perhaps we will have to start our own polling business.
By
Cartledge, at 2:25 PM
I agree, like I said, it's not a good poll, but the 55% over 55 surprised me. And there were just a few other things in there that grabbed my eye. It does explain the issues that are pitched to the base. 90% white base = anti immigration.
And, I would disagree with the "they'll all vote in the midterms, point.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 2:37 PM
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