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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, January 15, 2009

And it's not even working.....

Once again, "force makes change" fails.
But with each day, the authority, its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, and its leading party, Fatah, seem increasingly beleaguered and marginalized, even in the Palestinian cities of the West Bank, which they control.....

The more bombs in Gaza, the more Hamas’s support seems to be growing at the expense of the Palestinian Authority, already considered corrupt and distant from average Palestinians.


  • What if Israel can't stop before Obama takes office? What if Hamas won't let them? What if a second front opens on the West Bank, or Lebanon?

    It seems to me Israel figured it could control military events. Could turn them on and off like a tap. But what if they find they've ignited something they can't control?

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:39 AM  

  • First off, I don't think we're going to see a northern front. If Hezbullah wanted in, they'd be way in by now, and the few attacks appear to be "rogue" units.

    To the broader point, the Israelis are still in military control of what's going on. I'm not really worried about this becoming WWIV.

    The question to me is the political wildfire they've started, and where that leads....

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:04 AM  

  • I simply wonder if there is a tipping point fro Hezbolah where they feel compelled to jump in. I know it's bad timing for them, what with elections coming up in Lebanon, but still.

    Same tipping point worry: Will West Bank become radicalized? Will Hamas gain the upper hand there too? I'm talking more about a political blow up, not necessarily military, though there will be that element too.

    If Hamas is still lobbing 30 rockets a day into Israel, how much real control does Israel have? Remember that the reason for Israeli action was that rockets were being lobbed into Israel. I don't see Israel agreeing to a unilateral cease fire.

    I'm not really thinking World War 3 (or 4). Just an prolonged, escalated state of hot militancy.

    I'm just spouting stream of consciousness thoughts here... no deep thoughts.

    By Blogger -epm, at 8:56 AM  

  • In the background of this mess is the very odd notion that Abbas and Fatah are the "good guys", the "good Palestinians" who need to be returned to power so Israel can be safe again.

    Fatah was Arafat's Party, after all. The differences between Fatah and Hamas almost come down to nothing more than points of style. Fatah is basically more buttoned-down and more polished in dealing with the diplomatic community, but they are are as opposed to Israel's policies of lebensraum as Hamas is.

    The Israeli-pitched CW used to be that Arafat was the Devil, and if he were out of the picture there could be "progress". Then he died and Hamas won the elections. Hamas then became the Devil, and must go so that there can be "progress".

    If Israel succeeds in removing Hamas from power (a long-shot, I know), we will soon find that Fatah is then the Devil, who must go in order for there to be any "progress". Meanwhile, the settlement activity continues and more of the West Bank becomes absorbed into Israel, which is the real point of the entire exercise.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 9:05 AM  

  • I'm having a bad day. I don't really have time to respond, but I wanted you to know I read them.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:19 PM  

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