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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The "It's over" game. Try it.

Take just a minute to go to this electoral projector. Go ahead and click North Dakota and West Virgina red, and then fool around awhile to try and figure out how McCain gets to 270. (Especially without Pennsylvania or Virginia.)

Here's the RCP state by state polling to help you on your way.

Find a realistic way for McCain to win. I challenge you.

posted by mikevotes at 9:45 PM

5 Comments:

  • Answer: You can't without VA or Pa.

    If Obama wins Pa and Va, he can the lose Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina which are tight, Florida which is a couple point lead, Ohio which is +6, AND still lose NV, Colo, NM which are all +7.

    Even with all that, McCain still loses 268, 272.

    And those are just the Obama + states. There's also the possibility that Obama pulls one or more McCain + states.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:47 AM  

  • I'm really not bright enough to do the EV game... Wish I was. But I'm so, I don't know... not paranoid, but fatalistic, maybe that I can still see myself looking at the TV on election night wondering what the hell just happened. And not in a good way.

    I know, I know. I was in the same chicken-little mood in 2006 and the dems won big. Still.... I'll believe it when I see a McCain concession speech.

    By Blogger -epm, at 7:52 AM  

  • Seriously, click through to that electoral map. You'll see what I'm saying.

    Just open two browser windows and put the RCP state polling in one, and the electoral map in the other, and take 5 minutes clicking around.

    You'll see exactly what I mean.

    For McCain to win, he has to win Ohio, where he's polling <6.5 and then some combination of three western states where he's down <7 plus Pa or Virginia.

    And that assumes he's winning NC, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida where Obama is tied to lead 3.5.

    And that assumes Obama doesn't win any of the "nears" like North Dakota, Arizona, Georgia, etc where McCain leads by less than 5.

    Really, take just a minute and try it out. It'll make you feel tons less uneasy.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 8:12 AM  

  • OK. I feel a little better...

    By Blogger -epm, at 10:06 AM  

  • Basically, McCain needs five points in every swing state, plus another 1.5 in Ohio, plus another 2.5 in either VA or PA, and then he only back to "even" needing to win 7 tossups out of seven.

    It's just not realistic.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:38 AM  

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