The polls might be wrong
Here's the expected round of "the polls might be wrong."
(WaPo) Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself
(CNN) Obama's ahead, polls say, but will the lead last?
And, Ben Smith has the official McCain campaign version of why we can't trust our own eyes. (Short version: They win all of the undecideds and the large turnout is actually comprised of more of their voters.)
Nate Silver picks that apart, projecting undecideds split pretty even.
(And, I'm pretty skeptical of projecting GOP+ turnout.)
On the other hand, Check out the first two graphs of Chuck Todd this AM.
New and lapsed voters skewing heavily for Obama, maybe as much as +3-5% on the polls, and if these voters stick around, Bush/Rove's legacy would be a huge wave of anti-GOP voters.
(PS. None of the McCain info explains how he's supposed to make up 7 or more in Pa or Va.)
(WaPo) Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself
(CNN) Obama's ahead, polls say, but will the lead last?
And, Ben Smith has the official McCain campaign version of why we can't trust our own eyes. (Short version: They win all of the undecideds and the large turnout is actually comprised of more of their voters.)
Nate Silver picks that apart, projecting undecideds split pretty even.
(And, I'm pretty skeptical of projecting GOP+ turnout.)
On the other hand, Check out the first two graphs of Chuck Todd this AM.
New and lapsed voters skewing heavily for Obama, maybe as much as +3-5% on the polls, and if these voters stick around, Bush/Rove's legacy would be a huge wave of anti-GOP voters.
(PS. None of the McCain info explains how he's supposed to make up 7 or more in Pa or Va.)
posted by mikevotes at
8:44 AM
3 Comments:
More fretting?
By
-epm, at 9:39 AM
I don't think so.
If when some of the undecideds start to fall to McCain then probably another round.
My hunch is that the turnout will be big, so advangtage Obama.
Probably the thing to watch is how the Obama folks try to stoke enthusiasm over the weekend. (That's part of the shift to positive message.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:02 AM
Plus, the state polls are still huge gaps. Remember, if he wins Va, Colo (both 6-10) he wins. If he wins Ohio, he wins. If he wins Fla. he wins.
Even if all the tossups were magically tied, the odds of McCain winning 8 of 8 or whatever are pretty astronomical. (And the polls aren't tied.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:05 AM
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