Really, today is when we learn how Sarah Palin did.
I'll be really curious to see how the two campaigns play the aftermath of that speech. You have to figure both campaigns heavily focus grouped that speech, and will be running out some rush internal polling last night and this morning. Both will be trying to push positive data "on background" to the media.
The reactions from the campaigns today, especially the Obama campaign, will give the real sense of what they see in those numbers. (Are both campaigns watching/polling the same groups?)
Read the campaign tea leaves. By mid-afternoon, they'll tell you what you want to know. The side that ends up pushing the more specific demographics (ie single white women under 50K who speak Spanish, go to church, and own dogs) is probably the side with the weaker data.
My hunch is that the Obama campaign will come back pushing issues because that's the primary gap I saw in last night's speech. I think you could argue that, if that's the case, and if surrogates aren't out undermining Palin today, she probably didn't deeply reach the voters the Obama camp was watching.
Have to wait and see.
(If you see Chuck Todd on your TV in the afternoon, listen to him. Because they will all "leak" to him.)
(PS. There was a semi-publicly conducted real time focus group of women last night, but I think the group that put it together is pro-Dem, so be suspicious of its reference.)
The reactions from the campaigns today, especially the Obama campaign, will give the real sense of what they see in those numbers. (Are both campaigns watching/polling the same groups?)
Read the campaign tea leaves. By mid-afternoon, they'll tell you what you want to know. The side that ends up pushing the more specific demographics (ie single white women under 50K who speak Spanish, go to church, and own dogs) is probably the side with the weaker data.
My hunch is that the Obama campaign will come back pushing issues because that's the primary gap I saw in last night's speech. I think you could argue that, if that's the case, and if surrogates aren't out undermining Palin today, she probably didn't deeply reach the voters the Obama camp was watching.
Have to wait and see.
(If you see Chuck Todd on your TV in the afternoon, listen to him. Because they will all "leak" to him.)
(PS. There was a semi-publicly conducted real time focus group of women last night, but I think the group that put it together is pro-Dem, so be suspicious of its reference.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:45 AM
7 Comments:
As I was eating my breakfast I heard one of the Early Show reporters catch Palin's sister way off-guard with a question. She mentioned all the hoopla around families being off-limits, then criticized her for bringing her family into to forefront in her speech last night:
"Do you think it's ok to say your family should be off limits when you think it's going to get a negative reaction but then they're not off limits when you think it will be positive?"
Her sister stammered around for about five seconds and said she was "just introducing them." It was awesome.
By
Anonymous, at 8:21 AM
Yeah. The McCain campaign has now set up a media frenzy on them.
By saying you can't talk to them, we won't talk about this or that, they've pretty much set the task for the media.
By
mikevotes, at 8:23 AM
I predict Obama team will:
o Focus on the divisiveness of the Republicans
o Use that to tie McCain/Palin directly to Bush/Cheney/Rove.
o Focus on issues -- especially working class issues --and draw a comparison between issues and cult of personality.
- Talk about the future.
Obama's surrogates, on the other hand, will focus on the lies and hypocrisy coming out of the GOP/RNC. They'll be the ones pushing the "risky" judgement of McCain. They'll want to push Palin into the fringe... out of the mainstream.
I'm unsure of how long Palin stays in the mainstream spotlight. I don't think she has mainstream appeal, especially, and perhaps ironically, among independent women. I think the McCain people will want to keep her in a bubble... a gift to the fundie fringe... and only let her talk to James Dobson, et al. and maybe FoxNews. If she does stay in the spotlight, look for Obama surrogates to start referring to this as the Palin/McCain ticket and the diminishment of McCain.
Tying McCain to Bush and the extreme right (McSame) just got a whole lot easier. Obama's job will be to sell the seriousness of governance over cynical superficiality. No easy task with the American electorate.
By
-epm, at 9:28 AM
EPM, All that response will certainly be out there, (and I would guess the abortion issue will probably be out there as a re-wedge on women,) but I'm more interesting in the response and how that reflects on how effective the speech was.
That's the great question that will evaluate McCain's gamble.
That's really what I want to know this morning.
By
mikevotes, at 10:51 AM
Finally, analysis of Palin that helps me get a grasp on what exactly it is about this candidate, and her choice, that has for many days now befuddled me.
It comes down to this:
"Expertise doesn't matter; character does."
By
zen, at 11:40 AM
I think the Obama camp will emphasize the hypocrisy (a la Bush Cheney) of having a Tuesday theme of "Service," while on Wednesday repeatedly knocking "community organizers!"
I would also like Obama to emphasize a key difference between the campaigns, which is highlighted by Palin's persona and personal history:
For McCain-Palin, power comes from having been elected (even if it's just mayor of Wasilla.)
For Obama-Biden, power comes from having the ability to organize and vote!
By
seenos, at 12:19 PM
Zen, that's exactly what the McCain camp was pushing the other day.
When you don't have the policy, argue emotion.
....
Seenos, I would like to see them run an ad fairly directly stating, someone looking at the camera, "why are they attacking? They're attacking because they have no other way to win.
They have no plan to help with the mortgage crisis, no plan to help you with healthcare, no plan to help you send your kids to college....
All they have is attack, and as we've seen with this last administration, political attacks don't solve problems.."
But all that's later.
By
mikevotes, at 1:15 PM
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