Obama camp responds with issues
An update to the post below. I've been watching the analysts, Chuck Todd, Andrea Mitchell, Bill Schneider, etc, to see how they would interpret the backchannel data coming in from the Obama and McCain camps regarding Palin's speech last night.
So far, the main comments and posed questions seem to have become some version of, "Yes, she unquestionably fired up the GOP base, but she seemed empty of issues," which tells me that's the data (polling, focus groups) that's holding sway.
That would also echo the two publicized focus groups out there (I question the partisanship of their genesis,) but it does seem to be the growing mantra. Bill Schneider:
Since we're now starting to see Palin's speech framed in this way, I'm interpolating that the various sides' focus groups didn't show the speech significantly penetrating outside the Republican base.
If that's true, I'm pretty happy with that result, because for McCain to win, Palin needs to be a gamechanger. They don't win with just Republicans.
So, we come back to the question. If that speech didn't reach beyond McCain voting Republicans, was it still a "homerun?"
(Then again, the plan may be for her to be the "red meat," and for McCain to reach to the middle, but so far (6 months?) he has only shown limited success at that. Tonight's speech will offer the complimentary part which will give us a good sense of how they intend to go at it.)
(I would love to get my hands on the campaigns' internal data.)
Later: Then again, we have this. A new CBS poll showing 42/42. (After Palin's pick, but before the speech.)
So far, the main comments and posed questions seem to have become some version of, "Yes, she unquestionably fired up the GOP base, but she seemed empty of issues," which tells me that's the data (polling, focus groups) that's holding sway.
That would also echo the two publicized focus groups out there (I question the partisanship of their genesis,) but it does seem to be the growing mantra. Bill Schneider:
But when it came to solutions to America's myriad problems, Palin was noticeably lacking. She stuck mostly to what she knows: energy. And although she claimed to be as qualified as Obama to be president, Palin didn't tell us what exactly she would do as vice president, a job whose description she wasn't quite clear on just one month ago.
Since we're now starting to see Palin's speech framed in this way, I'm interpolating that the various sides' focus groups didn't show the speech significantly penetrating outside the Republican base.
If that's true, I'm pretty happy with that result, because for McCain to win, Palin needs to be a gamechanger. They don't win with just Republicans.
So, we come back to the question. If that speech didn't reach beyond McCain voting Republicans, was it still a "homerun?"
(Then again, the plan may be for her to be the "red meat," and for McCain to reach to the middle, but so far (6 months?) he has only shown limited success at that. Tonight's speech will offer the complimentary part which will give us a good sense of how they intend to go at it.)
(I would love to get my hands on the campaigns' internal data.)
Later: Then again, we have this. A new CBS poll showing 42/42. (After Palin's pick, but before the speech.)
posted by mikevotes at
1:22 PM
6 Comments:
No home run. Inside the park triple to a crowd that would have cheered a loaf of white bread if it gave the same speech.
At first the presumption was that Palin was picked to get the female vote. Maybe even the mythical disenfranchised "Hillary supporters," as was evidenced by Ms. Palin's initial remarks (before the pulled a giant burlap bag over her and rendered her to a secret, undisclosed location). But that died a quick death. And with the disinfectant of journalistic sunlight shining on her CV, it seems the GOP have decided to just stick with using her as an ultra-conservative attack dog. They seem to have found someone who's willing to do and say anything to get what she wants... and say it with a smile.
Since Palin is a national blank slate, and since she was a last minute (impulse?) pick, I think the GOP operatives have been working overtime trying to decide how to frame "Sarah Palin." They will create and sell the "Sarah Palin" that best serves their needs. I think last night's speech tells us the GOP are looking for her to bring in their right flank... dollars and volunteers.
It's still early to know how the media pundits will cover this, but let's hope they are more interested in substance that soap opera. Let's hope the call bullshit and not just repeat it.
I think tonight it goes back to John McCain (duh) who will treat us to the breaking news that he spent 5 years as a guest of the Viet Cong, so therefore he knows how to fix our economy and develop an energy plan. He'll also tell us that everything Bush and the Republican congress screwed up was the Democrats fault. As was the Republican obstructionism since 2006. He will tell us how dangerous the world is. He will restrain his glee that the cold war is back on with Russia. And he will tell us that he's just itchin' to kick some Ruski and Islamo-fascist ass.
Then he'll tell us Obama was never a POW so how dare he think he's qualified to even kiss McCain's feet, let alone be Commander in Chief.
By
-epm, at 2:26 PM
If it doesn't do anything more than fire the base, I would say it's a rally continuing single or double. Men on base but still a ton to do to win the game. (Not an out.)
I think they're now using her in the only way they can because she has been defined by her fundie positions like extreme pro life.
Their goal may have been to trot her out to go after the middle, but they lost the early definitional war so now they're forced to use her in her natural spot.
As for McCain tonight, have to wait and see.
I have a hunch the media will initially rave over his speech, mainly because they have raved over every single primetime speech for both parties, (not every restaurant should get 4 stars,) but we'll have to wait a day or two to see the real effect.
By
mikevotes, at 3:35 PM
McCain will continue the attack on Obama. My hunch is that McCain is more comfortable with attacking his opponent than he is with actually, you know, thinking about creative 21st century solutions. (see comments above).
Yeah. The crowd will be receptive so therefore the talking heads will think he "hit it out of the park" too.
=======
Question:
Who benefits more from the Palin pick: McCain or Obama?
My hypothesis:
If McCain -- a conservative Republican -- has to worry about shoring up the Right Wing base, isn't this that something to worry about?
Each candidate should be able to count on a certain baseline of support from their parties' core constituency without having to spend political (or personal) capital. This isn't true for McCain. So while Palin energizes the base, it merely brings McCain's base support to it's baseline level. It's like having to work extra hard just to tread water.
Meanwhile, the Palin selection may energize those leaning-Obama to move closer to supporting Obama. It may even turn off some leaning-McCain folks. [And god knows, it fires up an already committed block of Obama supporters to kick it in to an even higher gear of commitment (money and volunteering).] All this pushes Obama's support higher than his baseline. It's like free help from his opposition.
Had McCain picked any number of other qualified people, Obama would not be getting this free bounce.
By
-epm, at 3:51 PM
EPM, that's because they're "solutions" are no longer popular.
...
I've been flipping back and forth on McCain's play with Palin. Shoring up the Republicans is definitely a strategic move. It looks like they're going to try and run 2004, but I think even they would concede that they're will lose if they run the 2004 turnout model, because of Dem enthusiasm and new registrations/newly identified voters.
Whic means they have one of two strategies. Either 1) They're going to try to reach to the center with McCain, or 2) they're now managing a "respectable loss scenario where the Republican turnout keeps the congressional and senate races from being blowouts.
These are not mutually exclusive.
My hunch looking at it now is that Palin will be a net zero. Those leaning Obama will still go Obama and those truly in the center will likely be unaffected. It will bring more Repub turnout though, and volunteers they've been sorely lacking.
By
mikevotes, at 4:41 PM
That CBS poll is unreliable.
They changed the Party weighting considerably, for no apparent reason, in comparison to their other polls.
Independents were weighted 5 points less (coincidentally, Obama carries them), and Democrats were also weighted 5 points less. That's a lot.
I'll give a quick explanation of poll weighting:
Let's say you survey 100 people and get their candidate preferences. It turns out that, by luck of the draw, you only have 5 Democrats in your sample. You know full well that Democrats are more than 5% of the electorate so you weight the choices of the 5 Democrats more and the Republicans less. D/R nationally is 40/30 (roughly speaking), but CBS used 30/40 for some reason.
Rasmussen and Gallup are showing Obama with good leads, though the leads are different because Rasmussen uses "likely voters" and Gallup uses registered voters. Obama's leads are uniformly smaller when using a "likely voter" model because so many of Obama's voters are newly registered (and thus not considered likely to vote by Rasmussen).
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:59 PM
I don't know. I'm not really looking at the polls until next week. I figure you're not going to get anything reliable during the conventions.
I know the weighting issue. Maybe CBS reweighted Republicans on the (questionable) premise that Republicans were more fired up than before?
And I generally don't trust the daily trackings except in the sense of determining trends over a week or more.
By
mikevotes, at 9:22 PM
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