The Great Myth of the "Undecided..."
Just wanted to make the quick point that people who respond to polls as "undecided" aren't necessarily so.
Almost all of them have a strong "lean" tendency, whether consciously or unconsciously, towards one candidate or another, and come voting day, they will be significantly more than likely cast their vote towards that "lean."
There aren't 10% out there who are truly "undecided" and up for grabs. There's a spectrum of "leans" who, for whatever reasons or reservations, don't want to commit their position to a stranger on the phone.
The thing I'm trying to say is that not all undecideds are practically "available" to both candidates.
Polling is a blunt instrument.
Almost all of them have a strong "lean" tendency, whether consciously or unconsciously, towards one candidate or another, and come voting day, they will be significantly more than likely cast their vote towards that "lean."
There aren't 10% out there who are truly "undecided" and up for grabs. There's a spectrum of "leans" who, for whatever reasons or reservations, don't want to commit their position to a stranger on the phone.
The thing I'm trying to say is that not all undecideds are practically "available" to both candidates.
Polling is a blunt instrument.
posted by mikevotes at
1:08 PM
2 Comments:
I haven't given it much thought, but I suppose you're right.
My brother -- who is NOT a political junky -- is supporting Obama. Not like rah-rah supporting, just that he likes the guy for president. He's of the opinion there are a ton of people out there who support Obama but are, for whatever reasons, uncomfortable admitting it in public or to their friends. Closet supporters, I guess. He thinks the pollsters are going to be surprised come November.
We'll see. My feeling is, if Obama wins in November and has a smooth first 100 days in office you'll be hard pressed to find folks who'll admit they voted for the other guy.
By
-epm, at 3:33 PM
And, I see Obama with the lower hanging fruit among the "undecideds." Ex-Clinton supporters and folks worried about his experience. Whereas McCain has to win these voters from their tendency. Not to say it can't be done....
I'm really waiting to see how they come out of the convention.
I had always figured the convention was intended to be an enthusiasm relaunch. (They kinda turned down the heat over the summer because that level of fervor couldn't last.)
Have to see how that spins out.
By
mikevotes, at 4:33 PM
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