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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, July 06, 2008

Poll

The sample is a little small, but it's statistically above 50%.
A Los Angeles Times survey of 1,467 people, including 631 soldiers, veterans and their families, in late 2007 found that 57 percent of military respondents believed the Iraq war was not worth fighting -- nearly the same as the overall population (60 percent).


I think Obama's reception from the soldiers in Baghdad may be one of the most interesting moments of the campaign.

(Thanks to Todd for the pointer on the poll.)

posted by mikevotes at 6:00 AM

6 Comments:

  • As long as it was taken randomly, that sample is fine. 95% confidence +- 2% if I remember correctly.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 5:06 PM  

  • I don't know. I just know that once you get under a thousand, the real pollsters always get less confident.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:03 PM  

  • Rasmussen's state polls are usually 500 people in a sample. SurveyUSA uses around 600. Quinnipiac is the only big one that uses over a thousand in a sample consistently, which is why I have more confidence in their polls.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 8:54 AM  

  • I watched all the polling very closely in 2004 and I learned that they're shaped by so many factors that I'm hesitant to trust any of them too fully.

    This sample of 600 I considered a little less solid because I haven't seen any other supporting polling to give me a sense of confidence.

    (Or to contradict.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:37 AM  

  • I believe 1,047 is the magic number that gives +- 3% with 95% confidence.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 12:28 PM  

  • Again, out of my depth. Just 600 seems small for me to cite one poll as somehow deciding.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:21 PM  

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