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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Sunday, June 22, 2008

My assumptions confirmed on the Israel Iran story

Third day posting on this. First we get something of a confirmation that reports of this particular Israeli practice exercise against Iran are being hyped because, "such drills have been commonplace at least since 2005."

But, maybe more interestingly as I postulated yesterday, I think the bigger story may be that the Israeli exercise may have shown such a strike is likely to be off the table because such an operation would not be successful.
Officials, who declined to be identified given the censorship around Israel's strategic capabilities, said the air force would be unlikely to deliver more than a one-time blow to an Iranian nuclear programme, which international experts believe may require as many as 1,000 strikes to be destroyed.

"A hundred warplanes are enough for a raid but they do not make for an air campaign, and that is what is needed to deal conclusively with Iran's capabilities," an official said.

"Israel wants to go it alone against Iran as a last resort only."

And, one more, "I was right,"

Asked why the exercise might have been leaked in the United States, the official said only: "There's a lot of brinkmanship."

"US officials" (Bush administration figures) leaked this solely for effect, and it got dutifully and unquestioningly reprinted across the media.The thing is, the Iranians know. They've done their own exercises. The only target for this is the public and the Europeans.

Another shameful media moment. Another "package" delivered unquestioningly on the front page by the NYTimes' Michael Gordon.


  • I wonder if Iran doesn't already have a nuke or two? I never hear it mentioned.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:33 AM  

  • I don't know. I don't think so.

    We seem to have a pretty good grasp of the enrichment equipment that has been brought in and built, and to enrich enough for a bomb is alot of equipment that would be very hard to procure, manufacture, or operate without notice.

    This isn't the black box of N. Korea. A number of countries have spies in, and it's a more open society. Something would have gotten out if they'd had an entire separate operation.

    I would have to say extremely unlikely.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:26 AM  

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