McCain's problems
Well, now that we appear to have worked through "the Obama fret" (Polling fine to good among women, Hispanics, "working white," Jewish, swing state, etc.,) it looks like the focus is swinging back onto McCain whose campaign right now seems a rather chaotic and slipshod affair.
You had McCain's top campaign figure Charlie Black yesterday saying Americans dying in a terror attack could only be good for his candidate.
You've got the anti-immigration GOP livid that McCain held a secret meeting with Hispanic leaders where he supposedly promised them "paths to citizenship."
You've got McCain out in a poorly chosen Santa Barbara pushing offshore drilling in a state where that's not popular.... and McCain's backs off hiding behind "states' rights..... and you've got Schwarzenegger speaking against his plan.
Then, there's this gem. When asked by Fortune magazine "What do you see as the gravest long-term threat to the U.S. economy?" John McCain responds Islamic terrorism.
Another McCain adviser is the YouTube burp of the day in trying to defend McCain's inability to use a computer at a tech forum.
There're polls out showing Obama in reaching distance in swing states and red states (Indiana's the latest.)
And, An early bubbling of problems related to Cindy McCain's beer distribution company. (Opposed Mothers Against Drunk Driving on labels, markets the "youth friendly" flavored drinks.)
Bottom line. This is not the GOP machine we're used to seeing. I'm not sure if this is an off year thing, or a McCain thing, but seems to confirm that, for whatever reason, John McCain is not good running large campaigns. When he goes small, he's effective in targeted markets, but when it scales up, it always gets chaotic.
You had McCain's top campaign figure Charlie Black yesterday saying Americans dying in a terror attack could only be good for his candidate.
You've got the anti-immigration GOP livid that McCain held a secret meeting with Hispanic leaders where he supposedly promised them "paths to citizenship."
You've got McCain out in a poorly chosen Santa Barbara pushing offshore drilling in a state where that's not popular.... and McCain's backs off hiding behind "states' rights..... and you've got Schwarzenegger speaking against his plan.
Then, there's this gem. When asked by Fortune magazine "What do you see as the gravest long-term threat to the U.S. economy?" John McCain responds Islamic terrorism.
Another McCain adviser is the YouTube burp of the day in trying to defend McCain's inability to use a computer at a tech forum.
There're polls out showing Obama in reaching distance in swing states and red states (Indiana's the latest.)
And, An early bubbling of problems related to Cindy McCain's beer distribution company. (Opposed Mothers Against Drunk Driving on labels, markets the "youth friendly" flavored drinks.)
Bottom line. This is not the GOP machine we're used to seeing. I'm not sure if this is an off year thing, or a McCain thing, but seems to confirm that, for whatever reason, John McCain is not good running large campaigns. When he goes small, he's effective in targeted markets, but when it scales up, it always gets chaotic.
posted by mikevotes at
2:13 PM
6 Comments:
"When he goes small, he's effective in targeted markets, but when it scales up, it always gets chaotic.
"
As is characteristic of a "maverick."
As an individual member of a larger political body (targeted market, one issue at a time), people like the idea of a maverick. It seems to convey an independent thinker who's able to balance out institutional group think. But when it comes to a chief executive (global market, a complex system of issues), that same "maverick" begins to look more like a loose cannon overwhelmed by the bigger picture.
Just an observation. We'll see how it plays out during the campaign, but you know how they say "running a campaign is the first test of leadership"?... Of course the press loves Crusty McMaverick -- and a horse rase -- so I expect that as McCain's campaign starts generating gaffs, goofs, and missteps the press well feel obliged to create "balance" by digging up negatives on Obama.... like Obama's home purchase is equivalent to McCain's Keating Five cockup.
By
-epm, at 3:48 PM
Yeah, I agree.
I think part of the "national problem" is that in the townhalls he shapes his responses to the mood of each room and doesn't really have to face the contradictions from location to location.
Also, he seems to have pretty poor judgment iin the people he delegates to, and how much and how little power he gives them.
By
mikevotes, at 5:52 PM
A new national poll gives him a double digit lead over McCain, as well.
Maybe the Newsweek poll wasn't as crazy as it seemed a few days ago.
fivethirtyeight.com has the possibility of an Obama landslide at about 43%.
Obama's "very unfavourable" numbers (Rasmussen) are at 26% - about what Bush's support is at. And Obama's "very favourable" numbers are twice McCain's at 32%.
This makes a McCain scare campaign a steep hill to climb. And the longer the GOP waits to launch the "Fear Obama" campaign, the steeper that hill will be.
It's still early in the game, of course, but it's looking to me that everyone likely to like McCain is already on board.
We can count on it being over when the media turns against him. IOW, when the "Obama fret" becomes the "McCain fret", its too late. Republicans make crappy underdogs.
The "townhalls" are too staged to change people's minds, IMO. We've been seeing that kind of thing from Bush for years now, and it hasn't helped him. Obama is out there taking on criticism well and head-on, but McCain is insulating himself from it and trying to create the image that he is loved. It's safe but unlikely to win anybody over.
As I've said before, McCain is essentially still waging a primary campaign to win over his base. He's not talking to the nation at large - or at least, not well.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:34 PM
I've been watching that Obama v McCain favorable/unfavorable. How much of that is enthusiasm gap? How much is it just the difference in their personalities?
It does kind of surprise me, though, considering that a few moths ago, McCain's favorables were good while Obama's were falling because of Clinton. (But I guess some of that was Clinton support which has swung in.)
As for underdogs, the media loves the McCain underdog story. They'll give him favorable coverage when he falls low. But Republican voters hate that weakness so we'll have to see how much good it does him.
(And I had the LATimes poll, thanks. I was just trying to decide how to frame it.)
By
mikevotes, at 10:19 PM
But Republican voters hate that weakness so we'll have to see how much good it does him.
That's what I meant. Think Dole and the low Republican turnout in that election. Republicans love winners and admire strength. Underdogs don't give them that.
How much of that is enthusiasm gap?
Can someone be enthusiastic about a candidate they don't like? Unlikely, IMO.
McCain has been on the scene much longer than Obama, and people know him already - which is why his low numbers are not encouraging. McCain is left convincing people that their impressions of him over decades are wrong. That's a tough sell.
How much is it just the difference in their personalities?
That's the point, after all. If Obama is likeable, making him out to be scary is very tough.
McCain's "favourables" are more stable, but that's a curse when you are behind. McCain is thus left with the option of inspiring a grudging acceptance in those that don't already like him.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:47 AM
That's a good point about McCain. It's nearly impossible to "reintroduce himself." That's probably why the fundies/evangelicals still aren't biting.
As for Obama, the attacks on him, lack of experience, scary guy, etc do seem to go against his presentation. That's probably why Clinton never found the key, because you're asking people to change their perception rather than reinforcing an already existing negative.
By
mikevotes, at 12:58 PM
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