The Obama fret
"Oh, he can't win Hispanics. He can't win women. Oh, this state, that state, he's not leading by enough."
It's been a constant negative refrain over the last few months, and each of these speculative "frets" by the media (most based on unfounded assumptions of sex and race bias) seem to be eventually proven wrong. He's fine among Hispanics (Hispanics breaking for Obama 62%-28%) and women (Women favored Obama over McCain, 52% to 33%.) He polls even with Kerry Gore on white males.
(Here's your latest, Quinnipiac has Obama leading Florida (47-43), Ohio (48-42), and Pennsylvania (52-40.) One poll and all that, but, still, Florida in play.... Later: Also a tie in Virginia? )
The media seems to want this narrative of Obama in trouble. Anything that comes forward to support this thesis is immediately promoted as a problem where Obama "has some work to do."
(Can you imagine if McCain was up by 5 or 6 that it would be called a "narrow" or "slim" lead?)
We can argue that there may be issues, but the "Obama in trouble" narrative is way out of control. He's up by five or six in polling based on 2000 and 2004 GOP heavy base turnout models, and about half the country still doesn't know who he is.
If he simply splits independents in this year of record Dem self-identification and turnout, he still wins.
It's crazy, and the vast assumption seems to be that the Obama camp does't know what it's doing. Their history would argue otherwise.