Basra is just the beginning
I just want to point out that the recent flareup in Basra and the current conflicts in and around Sadr City are likely just the beginning of the pre-provincial election violence. The Iraqis are currently scheduled to hold the reshaping provincial elections in October which means that the violence will likely be spiking in the summer and early fall right into US political conventions.
The AP has an analysis piece on the likely reshaping through those elections (more Sadrist, much more Sunni,) but I want to point to something far simpler. Broadly, do you think pro-American/pro-Maliki or anti-American/anti-Maliki is more likely to win elections in Iraq?
Maliki and the ISCI are going to lose some power. Their only real avenue to hold onto it will be militarily against the Sadr/Mahdi complex, and likely through arrests and court cases (and some killings) against the Sunnis.
Also: (AP) "Iraqi officials say gunmen have killed a senior aide to anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the Shiite holy city of Najaf." (Read "gunmen" as ISCI/Badr.)
The AP has an analysis piece on the likely reshaping through those elections (more Sadrist, much more Sunni,) but I want to point to something far simpler. Broadly, do you think pro-American/pro-Maliki or anti-American/anti-Maliki is more likely to win elections in Iraq?
Maliki and the ISCI are going to lose some power. Their only real avenue to hold onto it will be militarily against the Sadr/Mahdi complex, and likely through arrests and court cases (and some killings) against the Sunnis.
Also: (AP) "Iraqi officials say gunmen have killed a senior aide to anti-U.S. cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the Shiite holy city of Najaf." (Read "gunmen" as ISCI/Badr.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:42 AM
3 Comments:
Good question. I think that the Sunnis will gain a lot of power, so by virtue of that, Maliki will loose some power. But the real story will be what happens between those loyal to Sadr and those loyal to al-Hakim. I personally am very curious to see not only who is more popular, but who is running a better political organization.
Although it may be a negative in the short term, a good showing for Sadr loyalists could be a long-term positive as the alternative is likely to lead to more violence.
By the way, when did SIIC change to ISCI? I really haven't been keeping up very well (but I STILL read all your posts, if only briefly).
By
Praguetwin, at 12:48 PM
Yeah. The Sunnis will gain out west which probably won't have too great an impact except that the Americans and Iraqi gov't will have to bend to them a bit more.
Sunni gains in the north might be far more inflammatory as it will impact oil, the Kurds, and transportation.
BUT, agreed, the question is how the Sadr/ISCI factions settle out. Sadr slightly wins Basra, more strong in the smaller surrounding towns, big in eastern and poor Baghdad. ISCI holds onto the wealthier sections of Basra and Baghdad and Basra with strength in the holy cities of Kebala and Najaf. It'll be a very different map.
And, these are provincial elections, not parliamentary, so it will not really lead to any kind of powersharing. It's more likely to lead to greater tensions between local and national, and then more competition between the localities as lard is applied unevenly.
(SIIC and ISCI have been used interchangeably sinnce the name change way back when. I was using SIIC, but the standard seems to have become ISCI, so I decided to switch.
It's really just arbitrary nomenclature though. translating from their language into English it's just a choice of Islamic Council or Council of Islam. You know?
I just decided to switch because ISCI seems to be getting broader use.)
By
mikevotes, at 1:38 PM
Thanks!
By
Praguetwin, at 5:27 PM
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