Political bits
In the last 5 primaries, Obama has beaten Clinton by more than McCain has beaten Huckabee.
NBC's Chuck Todd has become the most accurate analyst out there (from blogger to kingmaker.) Here's his junior explaining his math.
In a couple of days we should get the first post-Wisconsin polling for Texas and Ohio.
(FirstRead) "An Obama campaign source tells NBC News that after the two speeches, Clinton called Obama to congratulate him. The conversation was described as "brief."
(FirstRead) "The Obama campaign also tells NBC News that their January money total was actually $4 million more than they had previously claimed....the actual total was $36 million -- not $32 million." (Oops, we found $4 million under this sofa cushion....)
(WaPo) "That dwarfed the $13.5 million in January that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is expected to report Wednesday." (The Clinton campaign claims to have brought in $15 million online so far in Feb. .)
(McCain has $5 million cash on hand with "significant debt.")
(Ambinder) The pro-Clinton 527 targeting Ohio and Texas is taking shape with a $10 million goal.
LATER: ABCNews has more detail. This 527 will target white women under 50 in Ohio, and some white men. (Defensive.)
(Politico) The Clinton campaign's effort to get Florida and Michigan included steps up this morning with a new website. (Today?)
(NYTimes) "Mrs. Clinton wasted no time in signaling that she would now take a tougher line against Mr. Obama...." (Does going negative work if your campaign is perceived as desperate?)
(Politico) Clinton's new tag line, "Let's get real."
(AmericaBlog) Hawaii was expecting 10,000. 37,000 showed up.
Last, in honor of my home state of Texas' incredibly rare position in a primary race, I think I'm going to theme these posts with Texas musicians. We'll start today with Texas' own Roky Erickson and the 13th Floor Elevators with "I've got Levitation."
NBC's Chuck Todd has become the most accurate analyst out there (from blogger to kingmaker.) Here's his junior explaining his math.
On the flip side, Clinton needs to win 58% of all remaining pledged delegates simply to get the pledged delegate lead back. Forget 2025. And if you assume Obama wins Vermont, Wyoming, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, then the magic percentage number in the states Clinton wins rises to 65% -- SIMPLY TO GET THE PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD BACK...
In a couple of days we should get the first post-Wisconsin polling for Texas and Ohio.
(FirstRead) "An Obama campaign source tells NBC News that after the two speeches, Clinton called Obama to congratulate him. The conversation was described as "brief."
(FirstRead) "The Obama campaign also tells NBC News that their January money total was actually $4 million more than they had previously claimed....the actual total was $36 million -- not $32 million." (Oops, we found $4 million under this sofa cushion....)
(WaPo) "That dwarfed the $13.5 million in January that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is expected to report Wednesday." (The Clinton campaign claims to have brought in $15 million online so far in Feb. .)
(McCain has $5 million cash on hand with "significant debt.")
(Ambinder) The pro-Clinton 527 targeting Ohio and Texas is taking shape with a $10 million goal.
LATER: ABCNews has more detail. This 527 will target white women under 50 in Ohio, and some white men. (Defensive.)
(Politico) The Clinton campaign's effort to get Florida and Michigan included steps up this morning with a new website. (Today?)
(NYTimes) "Mrs. Clinton wasted no time in signaling that she would now take a tougher line against Mr. Obama...." (Does going negative work if your campaign is perceived as desperate?)
(Politico) Clinton's new tag line, "Let's get real."
(AmericaBlog) Hawaii was expecting 10,000. 37,000 showed up.
Last, in honor of my home state of Texas' incredibly rare position in a primary race, I think I'm going to theme these posts with Texas musicians. We'll start today with Texas' own Roky Erickson and the 13th Floor Elevators with "I've got Levitation."
posted by mikevotes at
8:29 AM
11 Comments:
"Oops, we found $4 million under this sofa cushion...."
HA! Funny, Tex.
The catch 22 of going negative for the Clintons is that while such tactics are usually very effective, in this particular race they also help to reinforce the Obama campaigns suggestions that Hillary represents the ugly politics of the past as well as the say-and-do-anything to win meme. The Obama campaign has used both the assertions to rebuff recent character digs from the Clinton camp.
Make no doubt about it though; traditionally attack ads work. It's all about making the electorate afraid to vote for your opponent. If Bush has taught us anything, is that fear is a very, very powerful manipulator.
Obama had better realize he can't bring a knife to a gun fight. He's gonna have to be loaded for bear in the upcoming debates. This is where Hillary can really sell herself in a side-by-side taste test. Obama will need a "there you go again" or a "you're no JFK" moment to put this baby to bed.
By
-epm, at 8:45 AM
"Clinton's new tag line, "Let's get real." "
This sounds an awful lot like "What are you people thinking!?"
I'm reminded of the old SNL skit c. 1988 where Jon Lovitz, playing Dukakis in a debate with GHWB, makes the aside, "I can't believe I'm losing to this guy!"
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-epm, at 8:52 AM
I don't think going negative helps at all, unless they have video of him spitting on babies on something.
This campaign dynamic has set up something of a jiujitsu against her.
And, I don't see how she goes too far after him in the debates without extending herself too much. Debates end up being about oneliners, and if she pushes too far, she may get laid out.
Remember "I'd be happy to have Hillary as my adviser?"
(And, I've always loved Lovitz.)
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mikevotes, at 8:57 AM
HRC should consider coming out in the debate and outlining WHY people should vote for her. Why and how is she different than OB? Many of her assumed blocs are seeing not a lot of diff between HRC and OB policy-wise. They see the diff in attitude, vision, respect (her failure to publicly congratulate OB in her after-primary speeches ARE being noticed), humility. HRC does not inspire someone to look ahead. She wants people to vote for her to bring us BACK to the Clinton successes. It is as simple as that...HRC needs to tell people what she will do to help us tomorrow...not how happy we will be if things were like 1994. She need to state unequivably that bill is not included in the package. He is giving her core support a reason to look elsewhere. She needs to convince us that rallying behind her is a better idea than rallying behind OB.
OB needs to continue to stand tall, remind everyone to vote for their future. Like I read somewhere else today...HRC is the wrong woman at the right time. OB is the right man at the best time for change.
By
Anonymous, at 9:11 AM
Agreed on all point, especially the "jiujitsu" comment vis a vis the campaign dynamics and how Obama successfully staked out his vision. Interestingly, I think this same boxing in will work against the GOP in the general, if Obama is the nominee.
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-epm, at 9:12 AM
Anon, that's a really good point.
One of the main criticisms is that her campaign has lacked an overarching theme. I don't think "Ready on Day One" inspires people.
....
EPM, Obama has been simply bulletproof so far. I tend to agree with you, but the cynic in me wonders if he can stay bulletproof for 8 or 9 months.
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mikevotes, at 10:55 AM
Mike, agreed. I think Obama has to show some "smack down" ability when attacked. Most of the Clinton stuff has been kinda junior high stuff, but the GOP is going to be just vicious.
By
-epm, at 12:47 PM
But that's still a tricky business. If he can pull off the dismissive without appearing cocky.....
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mikevotes, at 1:22 PM
That's what separates a senator from a president, I guess...
By
-epm, at 2:06 PM
I think negative stuff only works if a) you have some serious dirt on the other guy... or b) you can define them in a very unappealing way. Apparently Clinton doesn't have any real dirt on Obama, and it's tough for her to define him in a bad light when their positions are so similar. (The Republicans won't have the same problem--they'll be playing to a different audience.)
My sense is that the Clinton campaign is just frustrated at Obama's teflon armor. The plagiarism charge, for instance, was pretty trivial, but I think what they saw in it was the exquisite irony of Obama using someone else's words to defend the value of his rhetoric. And I think they couldn't resist trying to pop the overinflated balloon of his eloquence. ("Hope is never false"? Yeah, sounds good, but think about it for two seconds.)
By
Anonymous, at 6:52 AM
TG, part of the Clinton problem is that this is a primary and it's really hard to get away with going too negative in a primary.
And I use the word bulletproof for Obama. They've got to frustrated.
Because to my mind, they have the better candidate on paper, but the campaign can't seem to cash that in.
(I think I'm going to write a post on that this morning. If I can figure out a way to do it that doesn't get me hate comments....)
By
mikevotes, at 8:00 AM
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