It's gonna be a race
With Ohio and Pennsylvania apparently leaning hard towards Clinton, my home state of Texas is looking to be decisive in the Dem primary battle, and we have our first dead heat poll.
My sense right now is that we're at Clinton +5 (+/-,) but we're still Wisconsin and two weeks away from the vote. That's a long time.
(Does the polling account for Texas' delegate rules?)
(PS. Obama is about +4 ahead in Wisconsin polling.
And, do I buy this? Obama's internal polling allegedly showing him only -7 in Ohio? That is way, way better than the published polls.)
My sense right now is that we're at Clinton +5 (+/-,) but we're still Wisconsin and two weeks away from the vote. That's a long time.
(Does the polling account for Texas' delegate rules?)
(PS. Obama is about +4 ahead in Wisconsin polling.
And, do I buy this? Obama's internal polling allegedly showing him only -7 in Ohio? That is way, way better than the published polls.)
posted by mikevotes at
4:46 PM
6 Comments:
A dead heat all the way to the convention, I'll wager.
By
Anonymous, at 7:19 PM
I don't think it's a dead heat. I think it's Obama by 50 or more delegates.
In order to break even, Clinton has to win something like 57-43 the rest of the way, and I just don't see that gap.
By
mikevotes, at 9:06 PM
Well, heck, CNN called 50% Clinton-48% Obama (in Texas)a dead heat...
1250 Obama-1200 Clinton works out to the same percentage... so there you go.
Actually it's more like both horses are almost at the finish line, and the exhausted frontrunner is trying to hold off the late charge of the come-from-behind horse... while up in the stewards' box, the owners of both horses are twisting arms and passing out bribes in the hopes of getting a favorable ruling on the photofinish.
What Obama needs to do to really seal the thing is to expand his margin to where Florida and Michigan are moot... probably an impossible task, unless Hillary's campaign just collapses.
It may not be a dead heat, but it's gonna be very close.
By
Anonymous, at 2:00 AM
Okay, except that 50-48 is a poll with a margin of error while the delegates are a hard count. (Plus I think this is an Obama outlier. Again my sense is that it's really about Clinton+5 in Texas, but it's been tightening.)
BUT, I think your analogy is pretty right on.
Ideally either one of them would make a breakout. I'm clearly cheering for Obama at this point, but I think it'd be better if Clinton was to win if she won by a decent margin, too.
We'll have to wait and see.
By
mikevotes, at 6:58 AM
"leaning hard to clinton"...I don't agree. The gap continues to close and OB #'s are going up. Plus today (Tuesday) is OB's first visit to OH for the 4 Mar primary. Clinton will likely win OH but not by more than 10% pts.
By
Anonymous, at 4:47 PM
I see Ohio as safer for Clinton than Texas. Wisconsin will tell us alot about Ohio when we see the breakouts for the labor and <50K vote.
By
mikevotes, at 5:34 PM
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