Sadr/SIIC ceasefire "breaks down"
With the announcement of a date for provincial elections (October 1) and the approval of a Federalism law of sorts that will allow a conglomeration of the Shia southern provinces into a super region, the battle for control of Shia Iraq appears to have begun.
Sadr has canceled the interShia ceasefire.
Although this isn't the larger ceasefire with the Sunnis and US, this is a very big deal. It shows that the path to power is still violent.
There's been less violence while the country was treading water, but as more permanent distributions of power come back onto the game board, the violence will come back. It's just too useful a tool to be left to the side.
(So, what does the US do? The British are out of Basra and there's no effective presence in the south of the country.)
Sadr has canceled the interShia ceasefire.
Although this isn't the larger ceasefire with the Sunnis and US, this is a very big deal. It shows that the path to power is still violent.
There's been less violence while the country was treading water, but as more permanent distributions of power come back onto the game board, the violence will come back. It's just too useful a tool to be left to the side.
(So, what does the US do? The British are out of Basra and there's no effective presence in the south of the country.)
posted by mikevotes at
8:13 AM
3 Comments:
What can the US do?
Ultimately, in any violent power struggle, the intrshia one has the most potential for massive bloodshed.
By
Praguetwin, at 5:25 PM
Yeah. And when they're done, they turn on the Sunni. That's the battle. That's the path to controlling Iraq.
By
mikevotes, at 5:59 PM
I always saw it the other way around (Sunnis first) but who really knows?
By
Praguetwin, at 4:31 PM
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