Clinton losing. (Not really, but it sure does feel that way.)
After Super Tuesday I was focusing on the spin and momentum rather than the precise result because that's how this thing is going to end.
If the polls were frozen right now, the vote totals throughout the rest of the primaries would leave the two of them dead tied going into the convention, but I wonder if that's how it will play out.
Right now, Clinton is winning Texas and Ohio on March 4, but with the calendar laid out the way it is, it looks very possible that Obama could sweep through the rest of this month and you have to wonder if the Clinton camp can "manage expectations" for three solid weeks.
Maine's caucuses today will be absolutely crucial. It's probably Clinton's best chance to claim a win in the entire rest of February. If I were them, I'd spend every nickel I have hiring taxis to take women to caucus.
The other available avenue would be to corral lots of superdelegates, but, thinking what I do about politicians, I find it hard to believe that large numbers will take the gamble of publicly committing to either side at this point.
The bottom line is that the "feel" of the campaign is potentially slipping away. Momentum matters, and the Clinton campaign will have to find some or blunt Obama's because Texas and Ohio aren't voting today and their polls will likely shift in sympathy with the "feel" of the campaign.
Maine today is huge.
(And, yes, you should read alot into Clinton's repeated defense of superdelegates.)
Update: It looks like Obama will win Maine comfortably.
If the polls were frozen right now, the vote totals throughout the rest of the primaries would leave the two of them dead tied going into the convention, but I wonder if that's how it will play out.
Right now, Clinton is winning Texas and Ohio on March 4, but with the calendar laid out the way it is, it looks very possible that Obama could sweep through the rest of this month and you have to wonder if the Clinton camp can "manage expectations" for three solid weeks.
Maine's caucuses today will be absolutely crucial. It's probably Clinton's best chance to claim a win in the entire rest of February. If I were them, I'd spend every nickel I have hiring taxis to take women to caucus.
The other available avenue would be to corral lots of superdelegates, but, thinking what I do about politicians, I find it hard to believe that large numbers will take the gamble of publicly committing to either side at this point.
The bottom line is that the "feel" of the campaign is potentially slipping away. Momentum matters, and the Clinton campaign will have to find some or blunt Obama's because Texas and Ohio aren't voting today and their polls will likely shift in sympathy with the "feel" of the campaign.
Maine today is huge.
(And, yes, you should read alot into Clinton's repeated defense of superdelegates.)
Update: It looks like Obama will win Maine comfortably.
posted by mikevotes at
6:50 AM
11 Comments:
as long as Clinton can generate sympathy she can energize her base. As the month progresses and Obama picks up the victories expected of him, look for Clinton surrogates to plant stories of her or her daughter being unnecessarily criticized or picked on. This will be the run up to Tx and Oh. Clintons run well as underdogs (real or imagined) and they will utilize it to create a bounce to her base the week before 4 Mar. One only needs to look at NH for a clear model of how the Clinton campaign reacts and works to generate sympathy and prod her base into a protection response.
By
Anonymous, at 7:57 AM
Sympathy aside, the base Clinton supporters I know are Democrats first, Hillary supporters second. If Obama pulls ahead in a decisive way, I believe (and hope) that Clinton supporters will make peace within the party. One can be sympathetic AND practical at the same time. 90% of the Clinton supporters in my precinct told me that they would have no trouble switching their support to Obama.
By
Ptelea, at 10:28 AM
The demographics being what they are in Maine, I expect Clinton to win. Not Obama-blow-out win, but win. Less than a 10pt spread.
Obama will do very well in the Portland and Waterville area, but I think the rest of the state falls squarely into Clinton's preferred demo.
We'll find out tonight.
By
-epm, at 10:47 AM
Anon, I'm not sure I agree with the sympathy play, but Clinton as underdog will be the mantra before Texas Ohio.
(I wonder how effective that will be since Obama isn't really an establishment to run against. They can't pull the "overturn the power" line against Obama.)
....
Ptelea, I think, broadly, the Dems voting for either candidate will swing in and make peace assuming they're given a little time.
That's part of the problem with waiting until the convention to settle this is that it doesn't give enough time.
That's why I think this thing will be settled behind the scenes well before the convention. (Neither candidate wants to be a villain, Obama for his future, Clinton for the family legacy.)
....
EPM, I have no idea. I'm echoing the conventional wisdom that MAine goes Obama, but it is small state caucuses so, getting a thousand people out will change the whole thing.
======
(And, some of these speculative posts are intended more as conversation starters.)
By
mikevotes, at 11:30 AM
""Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., wipes her eye as she listens to a disabled U.S. veteran in the audience tell his story during a campaign stop at The City of Lewiston Memorial Armory in Lewiston, Maine., Saturday, Feb. 9, 2008. AP""
If (when) she is president, I wonder how often we'll see it? Did Thatcher cry on camera? How was it reacted to? Was it criticized/taken as a sign of emotional strength or weakness? How will the Clinton-Hate MSM spin it when she is president? Especially when the tears are there but not the appropriate results? (Stronger VA benefits, child healthcare, and all the other tear-generating opportunities). If the tears aren't there, will the MSM/populace wonder why she cried in the primaries and not now??? I know I will...Did she cry often as first lady? She was involved enough to be in circumstances/issues that could garner emotions?? If she is the Dem nominee don't be suprised to see Rush, Savage and Beck start to ask these questions in only that special way they are known for...
By
Anonymous, at 11:44 AM
Hey Mike. I know it's been a long time since I've commented here but I see you're carrying on just fine without me.
I wonder if you could email me? I have something I'd like to discuss privately.
By
Libby Spencer, at 12:58 PM
Anon, Yeah, I saw that, too. Prominently featured on Drudge.
Again, I'm not going to get into the crying, because, other than the overcovered NH incident, the rest of this is getting no coverage so it doesn't have any impact.
....
Libby, I'll send you one now.
By
mikevotes, at 2:07 PM
That was a great point that Hillary made about Sens. Kerry and Kennedy. And I think she is right about the superdelegates--like it or not, that's how the system is set up: they're supposed to exercise independent judgment. Of course their judgment may well come to be that they need to save the party by voting for Obama...
Or for Clinton. One thing that is getting surprisingly little notice amidst all the Obama hype is that Clinton leads him by several points in the major national polls... so who is REALLY the people's choice?
IMO Obama is trying, like any politician, to have it both ways... railing against the "rigged" superdelegate system, while simultaneously taking full advantage of the insane caucus system and doing his best to pretend that the votes of Floridians and Michigans don't count.
I don't think either of these campaigns is going to fold peacefully for the good of the party. I think the only way that there won't be a train wreck is if Hillary wins huge in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas... or if Obama's momentum carries him to wins there. Of the two, the latter is likelier.
By
Anonymous, at 2:25 PM
TG, the second half of your first para is how I think all this will eventually play out. I think the center core of the superdelegates will be brought together in May for an unofficial poll and then someone from the party will begin to pressure the presumptive loser to step aside.
Yeah, Clinton is still leading all the national polls, but almost all of them have moved into margin of error. The people's choice is determined by the primaries, and we're waiting for that to be decided. Winning polls of people who don't vote or caucus doesn't get you anything. Ask John Kerry.
I think one of them will fold once the result becomes evident because the alternative is to wreck the convention and the general election chances and neither side wants to be that big a villain.
And, I don't know which is more likely to have the great day in Texas/Ohio. Obama is coming in with the momentum, but, my state Texas, is kinda famous for not taking chances on candidates, and although skewing young, the hispanics and "traditional democrats" are strong in the big cities so Clinton could do well.
But, that's likely after three weeks of Obama momentum.
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mikevotes, at 2:45 PM
And once again I display my complete lack of political insight. Even in my own back yard. I figured the Mainers would be more like the rural NH folks. Then again, it was a caucus. Something about those caucuses...
By
-epm, at 6:15 PM
It's because caucuses don't reward broad support, they tend to reward passionate support.
I don't know Maine at all, but, I think if you pick just about any state, the Obama campaign can round up more "fired up" supporters than Clinton even if Clinton's tepid support is much broader.
By
mikevotes, at 9:10 PM
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