Just beneath the "success" in Iraq
Pay attention
The primary complaint among Sadrists is that the US and Iraqi government have taken advantage of the ceasefire to target Mahdi figures. One of the reasons this is so incendiary is that the Iraqi forces who are conducting raids are dominated by the rival Shia militia Badr.
It's also enhanced the perception that the Maliki government, and hence the US, is irreconcilably on the side of Badr and the SIIC creating even more interShia tensions.
On the Sunni side, although this is an extreme example, we're hearing more and more of this from the Sunni militia leaders.
Again, the primary complaint is with the Maliki government and the deeply Badr infiltrated security forces.
Perhaps the unwritten story of "the surge" is that the US has effectively chosen a side within the various factional faultlines, indirectly empowering the SIIC and Badr in their efforts to prop up Maliki and stand up a government force.
It is by no means a pure endorsement as the US has been arming and paying the Sunni militias to try and buy them off violence, but, without any real reconciliation and powersharing allowed by the Maliki government, a US backing of the SIIC and Badr has become the de facto result.
So, when you see the articles about "Iraqi troops" moving into areas like Sunni dominated Mosul or Sadrist strongholds, keep in mind that these "Iraqi government forces" aren't perceived by the locals as neutral, working for stability and fighting terrorists, but instead as elements of the Badr/SIIC faction.
Influential members of Muqtada al-Sadr's movement have urged the anti-U.S. Shiite cleric not to extend a cease-fire when it expires next month, officials said Monday, a move that could jeopardize recent security gains.
The primary complaint among Sadrists is that the US and Iraqi government have taken advantage of the ceasefire to target Mahdi figures. One of the reasons this is so incendiary is that the Iraqi forces who are conducting raids are dominated by the rival Shia militia Badr.
It's also enhanced the perception that the Maliki government, and hence the US, is irreconcilably on the side of Badr and the SIIC creating even more interShia tensions.
On the Sunni side, although this is an extreme example, we're hearing more and more of this from the Sunni militia leaders.
A crucial Iraqi ally of the United States in its recent successes in the country is threatening to withdraw his support and allow al-Qa'ida to return if his fighters are not incorporated into the Iraqi army and police.
"If there is no change in three months there will be war again," said Abu Marouf, the commander of 13,000 fighters who formerly fought the Americans.
Again, the primary complaint is with the Maliki government and the deeply Badr infiltrated security forces.
Perhaps the unwritten story of "the surge" is that the US has effectively chosen a side within the various factional faultlines, indirectly empowering the SIIC and Badr in their efforts to prop up Maliki and stand up a government force.
It is by no means a pure endorsement as the US has been arming and paying the Sunni militias to try and buy them off violence, but, without any real reconciliation and powersharing allowed by the Maliki government, a US backing of the SIIC and Badr has become the de facto result.
So, when you see the articles about "Iraqi troops" moving into areas like Sunni dominated Mosul or Sadrist strongholds, keep in mind that these "Iraqi government forces" aren't perceived by the locals as neutral, working for stability and fighting terrorists, but instead as elements of the Badr/SIIC faction.
posted by mikevotes at
8:16 AM
2 Comments:
What percent of our "success" in Iraq is absolutely beyond our military control? How much of our success is actually the result of independent actions of other groups, factions and countries?
And how easy would it be for an one of these other actors to tip us off our pillar of "success?"
Mission accomplished. Indeed.
By
-epm, at 9:13 AM
I think the fact that we're talking about "success" in quotation marks is all the answer you need.
By
mikevotes, at 12:01 PM
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