Differing party results from Feb 5.
As we head towards the chaos of Feb 5, I think it's notable that the Dems and Republicans face a different topography. On the GOP side, most of the big states are "winner take all" delegates, California, New York, New Jersey, Missouri, Georgia, while on the Dem side, none of them are. (Graphic on the left.)
To me, that seems to indicate that after Feb 5, the Republicans will likely have a prohibitive favorite while the Dems proportionality, may leave a more muddied result.
This matters a little because a perceived winner could gain a month of fundraising not to mention a headstart in the larger battle over presentation.
(Oh, and then there's the element that the GOP candidate will be decided largely by deep Democratic strongholds.)
To me, that seems to indicate that after Feb 5, the Republicans will likely have a prohibitive favorite while the Dems proportionality, may leave a more muddied result.
This matters a little because a perceived winner could gain a month of fundraising not to mention a headstart in the larger battle over presentation.
(Oh, and then there's the element that the GOP candidate will be decided largely by deep Democratic strongholds.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:35 AM
7 Comments:
On the other hand, having a presumptive GOP nominee well before a Dem nominee emerges gives the Dems, as a party, an advantage in putting together a focused opposition strategy against the GOP. Meanwhile, the GOP is left with two very unique Dem candidates an thus left wasting time and money trying to come up with an approach in advance.
It would seem to me, the GOP would already have an anti-Clinton template already. But Obama would is probably still an enigma to them in large respect.
By
-epm, at 8:43 AM
Fair point. It would also allow two Dem voices to be claiming media time, chirping against a Republican candidate, but, like in the primaries this year, earlier is better and if you wait too long, you lose the ability to define the terrain.
And, with the Republicans lagging in fundraising all year, that extra month would be significant.
By
mikevotes, at 8:51 AM
Seems the parties are reverting to type--the Republicans starting to move in lockstep while the Democrats engage in a costly, divisive primary battle. NOT what I was hoping to see... and I have to say I find a McCain/Huckabee ticket pretty intimidating.
I guess this means I'm rooting for Mitt to make a comeback...
By
Anonymous, at 12:20 PM
I don't think we've seen the Repubs moving in lockstep... yet. Although, as Mike points out, this may happen after 5 Feb. But then again, maybe not. Having built a coalition of convenience between the Religious Right, the corporatists and the libertarians, the GOP is really in an identity crisis of sorts. On top of that, I think there's real, personal, dislike among the GOP candidates.
By comparison, the hissing cat fight we've seen on the Dem side is tame. The candidates, in calmer environs, have actually said nice things about each other. Something the GOP field cannot bring themselves to do. And the policy positions among the candidates may differ in degree, but not on intent; different methods to achieve the same goal. I'm not sure the GOP can say the same about their candidates.
The primary will be expensive, but both camps have the dough. I'm hoping the rest of the primary season will be hard fought, but above board. I think it helps the party and the candidates temper themselves for the general.
It is a loooooong way between now and November. The passions so easily exercised by the true believers of the two Dem camps against the other, will be united against with greater fervor against the GOP candidate.
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-epm, at 12:48 PM
Tom, let's wait and see what comes out of Feb 5 before we pass judgments. Although the Dems will not have a clear winner, the cards may well be on the table. If either Clinton or Obama come out with clear momentum, the thing is likely over.
And, everybody on the left seems to root for Mitt Romney.
....
EPM, I don't think the identity crisis is settled even after a nominee is chosen. Maybe the hot phase will end, but there are factions within the GOP who hate each and every one of the GOP folks, so it's not like they're all going to snap in and get excited.
But the fundraising will be more focused.
Romney and McCain are throwing way more nastiness at each other on a personal level openly calling each other liars. (although it lacks the fuel of race.)
And, I'm not worried that either Dem candidate will get all the dems behind them by the general. The question to me is whether this stuff bleeds over to sour independents.
By
mikevotes, at 2:15 PM
Regarding the GOP identity crisis... in my clumsy way I was trying to make the points that you did.
In the general, as you point out, the independents will be the key to success. Though an un-enthused GOP electorate may have the side effect of buoying the Dems chances as well.
So which Dem candidate is most likely to energize the independents to their cause? I think Obama, both on message and age. Others claim Hillary will have no problem pulling independents, but I don't think the exit polling supports that so far.
By
-epm, at 3:08 PM
I tend to agree that Obama has more potential to reach out to independents and Repubs.
However, the counterpoint would be that they would also be more susceptible to the inexperience challenges against him.
By
mikevotes, at 4:18 PM
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