The GOP's evangelical chickens come home to roost
After nearly three decades of manipulating the evangelical right by pressing "hot button" social issues in their campaigns, it appears the GOP insiders have lost control.
The irony is that they built and nurtured this movement, and now it constitutes the largest influential bloc in three of the first four primary states. (Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida.)
Six months ago, the question was whether the evangelical right would show up and vote at all for Romney, Giuliani, or McCain. Now, they look likely to install a GOP candidate with almost no chance of winning the presidency.
Have the Republicans become their "third party?"
For Huckabee in Iowa,
His support is still concentrated among Christian conservatives -- 62 percent are evangelical Protestants, 76 percent attend church at least weekly and 88 percent are conservative.
A few stray thoughts. 1) I don't think Huckabee would be nearly as strong if the field was just two candidates. There's a ceiling here that's being masked by the wide field. 2) These people really believe that the reason George Bush is so unpopular is that he's not "christian" enough.
3) Through the summer, there was the open Republican debate about the direction/future of the party. I don't think this is the direction the GOP insiders had in mind.
4) How much vote can the GOP pick up by moving more to the right?
5) Is this the true Karl Rove legacy?
(Unidentified supporters of Republican presidential hopeful, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, hold a sign during huckabee's campaign stop, Dec. 19, 2007, in West Des Moines, Iowa. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green))
posted by mikevotes at
7:22 AM
13 Comments:
Bush is worshipped here in Iowa. It's very polarizing. You either despise him to the core or he is the second coming of Christ. His fans are a bizarre lot of highly insecure yuppies and scared crapless fundies. Either way there's way too many of his fans around for me.
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matt, at 9:22 AM
"Now, they look likely to install a GOP candidate with almost no chance of winning the presidency."
I don't think I agree with this. I think a lot of independent, minimally informed, and ostensibly Christian Americans will find Huck appealing. Even the most unobservant, non-practicing "Christians" want to think they're part of the flock. Nothing about Huck's religiosity will particularly bother these people.
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-epm, at 9:55 AM
MAtt, that's why Romney went after Huckabee for his attack on Bush foreign policy. Within the GOP nationwide, not just Iowa, Bush still has majority support.
....
EPM, they're going to have to be pretty minimally informed. If he does get it, there's going to be a whole lot on his extreme positions, and to alot of those "independent christians" his past positions and campaign profile will likely remind them why they are independent and not Southern Baptist.
Wait til more of the role of women stuff comes around. Huckabee, like many righty religious figuresin the late nineties aligned himself with that Promisekeepers thing where women are supposed to be subservient.
I may well be wrong, but my sense is that the presentation will be that he's from the far right, and I think that people will react to this.
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mikevotes, at 10:49 AM
I think epm is right. Don't be surprised if the Democrats soon start playing some kind of religious card.
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Anonymous, at 10:52 AM
I don't know. The whole religion thing is pretty much voodoo to me, so the more stringently they invoke religion the more crazy they sound to me.
Bottom line, I'm not a good judge
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mikevotes, at 12:42 PM
My opinion of the American electorate is very low indeed. They are informed by TV/radio talk hosts and TV ads, nearly exclusively. I think I saw a survey that said more Americans believe in the virgin birth of Jesus than believe in evolution. *insert forehead slap here*
American, by a huge margin, identify themselves as Christians. Sure, most of them are about as devout as a one-legged hooker on a drunken bender, but they all want to be associated with the sheep, not the goats. And Huck is such a darned nice guy. Sure he's a Jesus freak, but he's OK. He plays the bass and tells jokes. He's not like that prick Fallwell, or that creepy grinin' Robertson.
Now it depends on how much Huck pushes his Southern Baptist-ness as opposed to a generic, apple pie, Andy Griffith Christianity. Already the vile Bill Donohue of equally repugnant Catholic League have bashed Huck on his keep-Christ-in-Christmas political ad.
And all those inconvenient pulpit rants about women and gays... well he's pretty slick at deflection and the side-step shuffle. Also, Americans are usually A-OK at throwing other sinners under the bus as long as it's not their sins in question.
I could be way off base, but my gut feeling is that Huck will have more trouble getting through the GOP primary than a general election. Right know the GOP is OK with a little whacking of the knee caps of preacher boy. But come the general election, can you imagine the faux outrage blow-back and a Dem "going negative" (which is to say, saying anything critical) of that nice white, decent, Christian man. If anyone could pull it off, I think Edwards could, however. I think he's probably more in tune with who "those people" tick, and how to talk their language authentically.
Time will tell. Even more likely than these prognostications is that the future will hold something we've haven't even thought of yet. Politics an agile and fickle beast.
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-epm, at 3:15 PM
"Even the most unobservant, non-practicing "Christians" want to think they're part of the flock."
That's nice if you're looking for a pastor, but not for a President. He's just the Pharisee version of Bush, with all of the same politics, all of those loveable wars and down-home hatreds, only with a fistful of Jesus Dust sprinkled over him to make him extra-shiny.
If there is so much identification with Christianity in the general public, then why did Pat Robertson tank so badly? All of the candidates are Christian, to my knowledge, since Mormons consider themselves to be Christians. It's kind of like Giuliani saying "Hey, you're white. Vote for me, 'cause I'm the white guy in the Republican race".
Huckabee's religious line will play well within the GOP, but I can't see it gaining him significant traction with Independents. "Noun, verb, Jesus" won't cut it.
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Todd Dugdale , at 3:27 PM
EPM, My argument is that huckabee's presentation of his religion will be out of his control. And, the candidates don't have to be the ones to do the damage. It'll come from everywhere.
And, yes, some of that may be presented in the secular/religious war context, but, by and large, the country is more prone to secular than Huckabee's version of Jesus.
....
Todd, I tend to agree that Huckabee's plusses won't reach much outside the GOP. Heck, he doesn't even encompass all of the GOP.
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mikevotes, at 4:18 PM
And, EPM, let me also point you above to the "Political bits" post where the Huckabee crowd is cheering and shouting AMEN!
I think Huckabee's followers may draw the distinction.
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mikevotes, at 4:19 PM
Mike, the "hollers and Amens" are an example of what I meant by letting his Souther Baptist-ness overshadow the general, non-doctrinal, Mayberry Christianity. This was my caveat where I think his sectarian Christianity could cross the line and alienate other sects (see my coment re: Catholic League).
I actually think Huck is fairly good as not crossing the rhetorical line himself when speaking to general audiences. Maybe he can't control himself when he feels the "fire of the spirit" among the rollers. And more importantly, as you point out, He may lose control of the sectarian message as his followers try the help him out.
Huck has a lot more of a populist message as well. Baptist minister, sure. But that isn't the the face of his campaign. He's not pushing a school prayer amendment or a ten commandments amendment. He's not saying gays are an abomination. That's all Roberson-Falwell stuff (which is why Robertson tanked: he was an ass.)
All I'm saying is that Huck is a different breed of sectarian than the old guard -- at least in shaping his public image. His success in a general election will depend on the subtlety and generalness (non sectarian) of his "Christian" message. Because every one wants to be Andy Griffith's friend, ... but no one wants Andy to know on their door asking if they've been saved.
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-epm, at 7:32 PM
Oh, I don't think he'll slip. He's been doing the multiple audience thing for way too many years. I wouldn't expect him to be drawn into fervor.
I wouldn't even think his supporters at the functions would be that bad, but what we're talking about is a fairly committed group of supporters who appear to much of the country to be crazy. In their parallel efforts to the campaign, in their quotes in newspaper articles, the crazy will come out, and it will bleed onto Huckabee.
Interesting cross question: Did the more traditional Brownback bowing out clear the field for Huckabee? Brownback would never get this kind of move, but if he was still in, would he be the stymied Christian candidate with Huckabee lost in obscurity?
(PS. There were no black people in Mayberry. Or Jews. Or gays. Or really even real women.)
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mikevotes, at 9:29 PM
Good point about the possible Brownback dynamic regarding Huck. I hadn't thought of that. I'm not surprised that the Religious Right has flocked around Huck (I actually expected it sooner). I'm just a little surprised that his numbers among the whole GOP are putting him in the lead. Is he surging or are the other candidates tanking?
I wasn't trying to over analyze the Mayberry thing. To me it just serves as a template for the white-washed (no pun intended) nostalgic view of better times. A time and place that never really existed, but that so many people believe did. No, there were no Jews or blacks (that I can remember) but it was a kind and gentle place where even the folks in the underclass (hillbillies?) were treated with some decency.
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-epm, at 11:01 PM
I think he's surging and the other candidate support has always been soft.
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mikevotes, at 7:09 AM
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