US deaths down in Iraq/Iraqi deaths near high.
It is undoubtable good news that the number of US troops killed in July in Iraq is the lowest of the year, however, before we start constructing a case that this is victory, perhaps someone should notice that the actual violence that we're supposed to be there stopping, violence among the Iraqis, isn't actually stopping.
To some degree, I accept the Odierno argument that part of the reason for an increase in US deaths in recent months stems from fighting into new areas, but part of the decrease also has to do with the new arrangements working with the Sunni insurgent groups in Anbar.
The bottom line though in looking at success of "the surge" is not a reduction in US deaths, but the number of Iraqis killed, and in July, that number was not good, even without alot of huge carbombings.
(And, probably more importantly, the main violent components in the civil war, the Sunnis and Mahdi, seem to be pulling further away from the weakening government which looks less and less able to enact any real political reconciliation.)
Later: Reality Based points out that US casualties have dipped in every previous July. Sorry, left that out.
American military deaths for July rose to 76 on Wednesday with the report of three U.S. soldiers killed by a powerful roadside bomb in Baghad, but the toll was still the lowest in eight months as the U.S. said it was gaining control of former militant strongholds.
By contrast, July was the second-deadliest month for Iraqis so far this year, according to an Associated Press tally.....
Iraqi deaths rose, with at least 2,024 civilians, government officials and security forces killed in July, about 23% more than the 1,640 who died violently in June, according to AP figures compiled from police reports nationwide. That made July the second-deadliest month for Iraqis so far this year; at least 2,155 Iraqis were killed in May.
To some degree, I accept the Odierno argument that part of the reason for an increase in US deaths in recent months stems from fighting into new areas, but part of the decrease also has to do with the new arrangements working with the Sunni insurgent groups in Anbar.
The bottom line though in looking at success of "the surge" is not a reduction in US deaths, but the number of Iraqis killed, and in July, that number was not good, even without alot of huge carbombings.
(And, probably more importantly, the main violent components in the civil war, the Sunnis and Mahdi, seem to be pulling further away from the weakening government which looks less and less able to enact any real political reconciliation.)
Later: Reality Based points out that US casualties have dipped in every previous July. Sorry, left that out.
posted by mikevotes at
6:28 AM
4 Comments:
Troop casualties decline in July and August every year. Look at the stats on icasualties. The main reason is pretty simple. it's a 120-130 degrees a day during July and August - not exactly prime killing weather. But notice how the casualties inevitably pick up again in September. It's a shame our elite media cannot examine the stats to notice the pattern. But clearly they cannot. perhaps they are too interested in looking for patterns on Hillary's neckline.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 7:48 AM
Yeah, I forgot and left that out. Thanks, I added and credited.
Although, I'm not so sure this August will be that quiet.
With all the US emphasis on September as a decision point, you would think that those who want us out of Iraq might raise the tempo this August.
By
mikevotes, at 8:11 AM
A meaningful figure would be the number of patrols made by US troops.
By
Anonymous, at 8:28 AM
No data as far as I've seen.
By
mikevotes, at 1:01 PM
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