I fear a bloody August

Assuming a thinking and aware enemy who wants us out of Iraq, I fear we can expect a very bloody August in an effort to shape that American debate in September.

(Within the context of violence used to influence political policy, a spike in August violence would likely have more impact if it came like a wave on the tail of a lower violence July.)

So, if you really want to know if "the surge" has diminished the ability of the various groups to conduct violence, rather than simply achieved a reduction in violence, August, I fear, is the month to watch.

I don't think it's coincidental that August begins with 4 bombings killing at least 70.