Baiting al Sadr and the Mahdi
According to anonymous military sources Al Sadr has been in Iran for a couple weeks.
What I'm finding far more interesting is the way the US military is trying to play this by timing the release of weeks old information and by painting Sadr as a coward.
ABCNews who "broke" the story (was given the story for release) includes this:
Do you hear that Mahdi fighters? Your leadership is afraid of the Americans and has abandoned you.
It's a little obvious isn't it? (Reuters, AP)
Later: The intent appears to be to use Sadr's absence to separate his more radical followers. Once they're clear of him, the US can go after them without upsetting the Maliki/Sadr relationship. The end result would be a diminished Sadr who is more reliant on the political for his influence.
Later still: (AP) Representatives claim Sadr is in Najaf and met with government officials yesterday. (I'm sure they can find government officials who will corroborate that whether it's true or not.)
They also claim that he was not going to make any appearances for the month of Muharam and that the story is a result of their own disinformation designed to hide Sadr's location from attackers.
However, I'm tending to believe that he and some of his staff are in Iran. Whether it was the Iraqi intention or simply US opportunism, this dovetails too conveniently with the unexplained closing of the Iranian border.
What I'm finding far more interesting is the way the US military is trying to play this by timing the release of weeks old information and by painting Sadr as a coward.
ABCNews who "broke" the story (was given the story for release) includes this:
Sources believe al Sadr is worried about an increase of 20,000 U.S. troops in the Iraqi capital. One official told ABC News' Martha Raddatz, "He is scared he will get a JDAM [bomb] dropped on his house."
Sources say some of the Mahdi army leadership went with al Sadr.
Do you hear that Mahdi fighters? Your leadership is afraid of the Americans and has abandoned you.
It's a little obvious isn't it? (Reuters, AP)
Later: The intent appears to be to use Sadr's absence to separate his more radical followers. Once they're clear of him, the US can go after them without upsetting the Maliki/Sadr relationship. The end result would be a diminished Sadr who is more reliant on the political for his influence.
Later still: (AP) Representatives claim Sadr is in Najaf and met with government officials yesterday. (I'm sure they can find government officials who will corroborate that whether it's true or not.)
They also claim that he was not going to make any appearances for the month of Muharam and that the story is a result of their own disinformation designed to hide Sadr's location from attackers.
A spokesman for the Sadrist bloc said the assertion that al-Sadr had fled was part of a "psychological war" by U.S.-led forces to try to prod the cleric into the open.
However, I'm tending to believe that he and some of his staff are in Iran. Whether it was the Iraqi intention or simply US opportunism, this dovetails too conveniently with the unexplained closing of the Iranian border.
posted by mikevotes at
9:13 PM
4 Comments:
On the one hand, I don't begrudge the AMS (anonymous military source) for trying to do a little psy-ops with the story. But the part about dropping the JDAM on his house may well be seen as a veiled threat -- a provocation -- to which the Mahdi army -- and by extension, Shia in general -- may see as justification for targeting American troops.... something that is usually only done by Sunni. I don't know. Maybe this talk is what's needed.
Then again, it may be seen as another "bring it on" moment, in a way?... A line drawn in the sand across which the insurgents feel compelled to cross.
By
-epm, at 9:35 PM
I would guess the idea is to split the more aggresive elements from Sadr so that they can then be taken down without risking the Sadr/Maliki relationship.
It would also serve to lessen Sadr's power and influence overall.
Of course it assumes that all contingencies are covered and the US successfully deals with the splintering.
This could also remove the brake Sadr has been providing leading to far more Shia "revenge" killing.
(All of this assumes the psyop works. They've gotten pretty saavy over time.)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:05 PM
...the story is a result of their own disinformation designed to hide Sadr's location...
This whole double-twisted contest of disinformation is beginning to sound almost comical. In a world with a bottomless pit of "unnamed government officials" everything is possible and nothing is true.
By
-epm, at 9:19 AM
True, but the reason for Sadr's disinformation on his location is not some vague influencing idea.
It's designed to keep the sunnis from driving a truck bomb up his ass.
(And, my hunch from reading all this is that he is in Iran, but who knows?)
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 10:25 AM
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