The Senate Race is tightening
Treat this, as always, as just one poll, but it does generally match the larger trends of Burns/Tester and Chafee/Whitehouse closing. As we've known for months, this election is all going to be about turnout.
And, on the topic of turnout, "a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote."
Weakness among evangelicals. Weakness across the board.
And, on the topic of turnout, "a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote."
Weakness among evangelicals. Weakness across the board.
posted by mikevotes at
8:10 AM
8 Comments:
Repubs could still kill a lot of bills in a 51-49 Democrat-led Senate.
Rasmussen has Tester beating Burns by 4. Split the difference btwn Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon and you have a 2 point Tester lead - probably where the race is really at.
I could see Chafee winning that RI race, but the Mason Dixon numbers may be suspect - the three previous polls (Zogby, Rhode Island College, and Rasmussen show Chafee trailing by 14, 10 and 8 respectively. They're older polls, of course. I think the Zogby numbers are even more suspect than Mason-Dixon's, but I find it hard to believe that Chafee is actually up. I would bet the race is really at a 3-4 point lead for Whitehouse w/ Chafee closing in. Can he win? Absolutely. Is he up RIGHT NOW? It just doesn't feel that way. I wonder what the internal polls are saying? I'd bet that if either campaign had definitive polls showing momentum one way or the other, we'd hear about it.
Most of the pros say ties go to Dems this year because of the negative environment for Repubs. Repubs say they're turnout will offset the negative environment in close races. We'll see soon enough.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 11:11 AM
On the Time poll, definitely a gap between regional, local, and national. I would expect the competitive states to have far better turnout than we do here in Texas.
This poll is national, so it can't be used as an exact predictor. But I do think it's a rough barometer. It's really the best we have.
And on the Senate/KR poll, I agree with your sense that both Montana and RI are still leaning Dem, but they're both REALLY small states where a dozen busloads could make a difference, so turnout there will be even bigger.
I just don't have a feel about the ties going Dem everywhere. The other one is the undecideds break away from the incumbent. I'm hitting that pregame question doubt period.
And, I don't believe in the myth of the Republican turnout machine. It is good, but I think the prevailing environment in the past few elections have over hyped it. The success was largely based on turning out Evangelicals by convincing them they were supporting god. That's incredibly powerful, but it's based on that connection, and if it's even partially broken, the GOTV goes from mythical to simply effective.
Ya know?
Just an opinion.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:22 AM
New Rasmusen poll shows tester with a 2 point lead over Burns, Corker with a 4 point lead over Corker. Both leads have tightened since the last Rasmussen polling.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 12:42 PM
Really, my thought was that Corker was drifting away. That would be great if it tightened up.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 6:52 PM
A post at Kos says a Gallup poll will also show a tightened race in Tenn.
Lots of people are starting to jump off the bridge at the tightened generic ballot leads for Dems in the latest Post/ABC News and Pew polls. I admit I'm getting a little nervous myself, but I keep telling myself that the NEWSWEEK and TIME polls show a 16 and 15 point lead at the same time the other two polls show Repubs making a comeback and that the reality is probably in between (say 6-9 points). Still - the way the CW changed from yesterday to today is really disconcerting. Thankfully this will all be over in 48 hours or so and we'll know one way or the other.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 8:08 PM
I'm not jumping off a bridge. Remember, the Republicans have conceded ten house seats already. With so many in tossup, it's almost forgone at this point.
The Senate is much harder, but, really, it always has been. On the broad arc, The Dems have moved into position to have a shot over the last two months, but there were always too many close races to say that they had it for sure.
The only way the Dems are ever going to take the Senate is if this is a wave year with a substantial turnout difference or a really strong break of independents.
I mean they could catch the breaks without it, but that would be a big ask.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:10 PM
"The only way the Dems are ever going to take the Senate is if this is a wave year with a substantial turnout difference or a really strong break of independents."
That's it exactly Mike and that's what I'm looking for. I would think there' going to big a big blue wave this year and conversely a big red stay-at-home with disillusionment (is that a word?).
That's gotta be why the dim son is out stumping in the mid-west. Turdblossom must have ordered him to GOTV. I think the only thing they're managing to fire up is the gullible base anyway.
And I still think the Democrats have an ace or two in the hole with the "undecideds" and the independents. I'll take all the sleepers we can get at this point.
I'm saying forget the outlier polls (like that quick Montana release after bush's visit), but I'm also saying red theft concerns the hell out of me.
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Chuck, at 10:49 PM
I agree on the undecideds and independents, but that's a harder group to reach and turn out though. They pretty much have to turnout on their own.
If there's a wave, I think that's where it's coming from.
If the Dem turnout is even or higher(with higher identification/registration) that gives a good win.
But if the pissed off independents come in breaking 60/40 or even 55/45, that is the huge wave.
There is good evidence that this turnout will occur as the anti-Republican anger is strong, but until game day, it's all speculation.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 7:39 AM
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