Bush's "beliefs" vs reality

OK. I fully understand why the White House is pushing this optimism line towards the election. No matter the facts, they have to.

But, doesn't this also, very directly, point out the lie that is the optimism line on Iraq?

If it's White House strategy to push optimism against this,

A strategist close to the White House said Mr. Bush’s own political team had polling that showed as many as 14 House seats were probably already lost to Democrats, just one shy of the 15 seats they need to gain to win control.

How much credibility does Bush have swearing to "victory in Iraq?"