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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Iraq

Very quietly in the US press, the US military has moved into Diwaniyah and begun operations against the Sadr supporters there. A protest of the US raid ended with ten dead after government forces opened fire on the crowd. We'll have to wait and see if Sadr accepts this or responds elsewhere.

US troop levels in Iraq are now up to 147,000. The army claims this is the result of a rotation, but "could not be specific when levels would return to the 138,000-troop level that has been the baseline for many months."

At their meeting in Tehran, Khamenei told al-Maliki "that the way to end instability in Iraq is for U.S. forces to withdraw." This states Iran's intentions in Iraq fairly clearly. Iran will continue to support anti-US activities. (The top point of Maliki's visit, at least officially, was to ask Iran to stop its support.)

And if you didn't see Kofi Annan's comments after his middle east tour, they're worth a look.
"Most of the leaders I spoke to felt that the invasion of Iraq and its aftermath have been a real disaster for them ... They believe it has destabilized the region....."

Other leaders, notably in Iran, felt that "the presence of the US is a problem and that the US should leave, and if the US were to decide to leave they would help them," Annan said.

"So in a way the US finds itself in a position where it cannot stay and it cannot leave," he said.

Reaction from the White House was swift.


4 Comments:

  • Of course it's caused by rotation. Tis the season to bring the "new" forces in (the ones on tour 2, 3, 4). We're just keeping the old hands around a while longer. January, for the Strykers.

    Just a rotational issue.

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 11:46 AM  

  • Kinda like oil prices always fall 15 dollars a barrel right before elections.

    By Blogger Reality-Based Educator, at 12:37 PM  

  • Copy Editor, Right. I couldn't figure out a way to say that briefly and stay in the "news" tone.

    Reality-based, That's what crossed my mind, too. We've discussed that Forward Together just happened to be timed to the election.

    I don't think the callups are tied in, I think they've been on for some time, but the extensions sure seem to be.

    OH, and the was the note that none of these troops were likely bound for Anbar.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:04 PM  

  • It's worth noting that Iran'sposition may be more nuanced than you suggest.

    Sure, they want to have the US bogged down in Iraq (because it makes it harder for them to attack Iran) and they probably aren't averse to pro-Iranian Shia increasing their influence.

    Conversely, they don't want Iraq to descend into chaos (it's only a short hop across the border after all), nor for the Sunni crazies (al-Qaeda etc.) to be strengthened. Add to that the fact that pro-Iranian politicians (like SCIRI) were doing quite well out of the US-backed political process and as you've noted previously, one of the people doing best out of the current mess is Sadr, probably the most anti-Iranian (or simply most independent) of the Shia leaders.

    This probably explains why SCIRI remain generally pro-occupation (rhetorical assertions to the contrary aside).

    By Blogger Disillusioned kid, at 9:41 AM  

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