Israel, Lebanon, Saudi, and Egypt
I have more questions than answers at this point on the current mideast flareup. I've not been following it closely lately, so I'm lacking some framework, but the question that crossed my mind this morning was how will it play in Egypt and Saudi Arabia?
Thus far, both governments have issued statements to the US asking Israel to practice restraint, but how far does that go with their citizens? Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have large populations of fairly extreme Islamists who represent a possible challenge (possibly violent) to their current governments, and if the Israeli invasion of Lebanon stretches for some time, it will certainly create pressures.
Overnight, the Israelis bombed the Palestinian foreign ministry in Gaza, bombed the Lebanese airport, and stated an intent to blockade air and ship traffic into Lebanon.
(Again, sorry, I don't really have a good broad sense on this story yet, so I'm posing the questions as they cross my mind.)
Thus far, both governments have issued statements to the US asking Israel to practice restraint, but how far does that go with their citizens? Both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have large populations of fairly extreme Islamists who represent a possible challenge (possibly violent) to their current governments, and if the Israeli invasion of Lebanon stretches for some time, it will certainly create pressures.
Overnight, the Israelis bombed the Palestinian foreign ministry in Gaza, bombed the Lebanese airport, and stated an intent to blockade air and ship traffic into Lebanon.
(Again, sorry, I don't really have a good broad sense on this story yet, so I'm posing the questions as they cross my mind.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:24 AM
9 Comments:
Commenting here on the new thread....
I think that the reason it happened was hezbollah calling Israel's hand. They saw the heavy handed measures taken after the soldier was captured in Gaza. The want Israel to overreact, which is exactly what they are doing.
Saudi Arabia seems to stay out of everything at least publicly. Egypt, I think will be a different story. You could get quite a flare-up if the Mubarak doesn't at least beg the Americans to restrain the Israelis. I think in the coming days you will start to see a call for Egypt to intervene from the more militant sectors of Egypt's society. The same calls will be being made in S.A. but we won't know anything about them.
I'm still trying to fathom how significant this really is. My sense is that it is very significant, and this is going to escalate.
I hope I am wrong.
By
Praguetwin, at 12:18 PM
I suspect Iran has a hand in coordinating Hamas and Hezbollah. If so, they're doing this for a reason that likely has to do with weakening Israel, or provoking the US to do something stupid. A regional conflict with Iran coming out on top would be fine with them.
By
Greyhair, at 12:24 PM
Praguetwin, good points.
Again I don't have a firm grip on this at this point, but I do see the precipice and that's got me a little concerned. On the good side, the air could be let out of this quickly if the Israelis want to.
I'm not all that concerned about the current gov't's of Egypt or Saudi doing something irrational, my fear is that their failure to act will cause real domestic problems in their own countries. No matter how much we talk about the others, if either of those two went wrong, it could cause more trouble than almost any other place, with the exception of Iran or Pakistan. They are major powers with serious governmental problems. Saudi has the oil and Egypt has 80 million educated people.
And, Greyhair, I do have this strange feeling that Iran has a hand in this. It's not rational, but right when the US tries to get Sec Council agreement on Iran, the Shia in Iraq suddenly become far more active, and this. So I don't know, it's kind of a hunch. But a greater instability across the region would benefit them at this point. The US has no real options against them except military action which is unlikely, so they're pretty safe to make whatever moves they want.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:41 PM
Also, the one hitch is that it may be impossible to establish indisputable Iranian connections because the Israelis are going to muddy the water with charges. Just as I treat Iran's pronouncements on Israel with serious skepticism, history shows that I must do the same in reverse.
For example, the Israelis already claimed that Hizbullah was planning to move the Israeli soldiers to Iran. And that would be insane if you think about it.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:43 PM
Saudi and Egyptian regimes are fairly repressive, and already keep more extreme elements under tight control. Plus, despite how much some in these countries have allergic reactions to any Israeli expression of its sovereign power, it's clear to them that Hizballa brought this on itself. I don't see significant destabilization there.
Iran and to some extent Syria (when it suits it) have a long history of funding, supporting, and even staffing Hizballa. It certainly seems they knew and approved. Regrading timing, it certainly appears as though the recent attack was timed to make things tougher for Israel.
I have seen some reports indicating Hizballa began planning this operation several months ago with the aim of reviving its popularity within Lebanon and the more extreme Muslim world as well as to bargain for release of prisoners in Israeli jails. This doesn't hurt the Iranian (and Syrian?) regime, which never misses an opportunity to keep the focus on and to stoke the conflict with Israel and the West.
But probably they miscalculated the response of Israel. Israel is even less tolerant now than its usual low level of tolerance towards those who would use kidnap its soldiers and use blackmail to achieve their aims.
James
By
Anonymous, at 2:28 PM
Great Comment!
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 2:56 PM
Really good stuff from everyone.
Mike, I think that both Egypt and Saudi Arabia will have their internal flare-ups because of their predictable inaction, but Saudi Arabia will be better at supressing their internal dissent.
The 80 million educated Egyptians are sure to make a bigger stink about all of this, not matter who they choose to vilify.
By
Praguetwin, at 6:29 PM
I agree on Saudi. Their violent minority is very violent, but also very much a minority.
Egypt has much more of a "street" presence, and a fairly recent upset over elections limiting the Muslim brotherhood. Their conflict is more open.
Also, at this point, I'm just throwing out possibilities because the end point on this is across such a wide range. So, anything that's not a link, take with a grain of salt.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 7:02 PM
I have my doubts about any Iranian connection. It seems to fit too snugly with "the axis of evil". Other peoples are quite capable of provoking a disproportionate military response from Israel.
One thing is clear. The civilians on all sides are suffering terribly.
By
Anon, at 7:23 AM
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