Does the "Cedar Revolution" look as good today?
I'm not an expert in the region, but it would seem that the current activities in Lebanon come, at least partially, as a result of the "Cedar Revolution" in February, 2005, much supported and heralded by the Bush administration in its fresh from reelection "freedom agenda."
One of the main results of the Lebanese uprising was the removal of about 35,000 Syrian troops who had been stationed in southern Lebanon at the Israeli border. This removal left Hizbullah unchecked as the only military force in the region. The Israelis claim that the Lebanese government should have moved troops into southern Lebanon, but to do so would've fractured the coalition government and potentially led to an open civil war.
Syria was by no means a good actor, but in its presence, it both protected and restrained Hizbullah. It protected them by acting as a counterbalancing force against Israeli operations and incursions, and it restrained them by putting Syria's chips on the table. Without Syrian troops in the region, they suffer no direct repurcussions for Hizbullah's acts.
On the other hand, it must be said that some part of Syrian influence over Lebanese politics has been removed, and to the people of Lebanon who opposed that influence, that's a very good thing.
I think it's another idealist vs realist foreign policy conflict, and I don't know the right answer.
(This is just off the top of my head. I thought I'd start some thoughts as the Cedar Revolution may become a topic if the Israeli offensive continues. Comments are appreciated.)
One of the main results of the Lebanese uprising was the removal of about 35,000 Syrian troops who had been stationed in southern Lebanon at the Israeli border. This removal left Hizbullah unchecked as the only military force in the region. The Israelis claim that the Lebanese government should have moved troops into southern Lebanon, but to do so would've fractured the coalition government and potentially led to an open civil war.
Syria was by no means a good actor, but in its presence, it both protected and restrained Hizbullah. It protected them by acting as a counterbalancing force against Israeli operations and incursions, and it restrained them by putting Syria's chips on the table. Without Syrian troops in the region, they suffer no direct repurcussions for Hizbullah's acts.
On the other hand, it must be said that some part of Syrian influence over Lebanese politics has been removed, and to the people of Lebanon who opposed that influence, that's a very good thing.
I think it's another idealist vs realist foreign policy conflict, and I don't know the right answer.
(This is just off the top of my head. I thought I'd start some thoughts as the Cedar Revolution may become a topic if the Israeli offensive continues. Comments are appreciated.)
posted by mikevotes at
9:09 PM
3 Comments:
This is a very good point, and one that was brought up by the Syrians (not overtly of course).
Without Syria in the way, Isreal is free to attack Lebanon again, and here we go.
I'm sure you are going to love waking up to the news about the airport.
By
Praguetwin, at 7:56 AM
These guys and gals in the administration really don't have any idea what they are doing, do they?
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 8:33 AM
Praguetwin, I fear every morning is going to be a grim surprise for awhile.
I haven't been watching the Israeli story lately, so I'm still trying to get a sense of the braoder frame of whats going on. Why did Hizbullah do this, why now, and what are the intended results? I think it's going to take awhile for me to get the "frame" of the thing.
And, Reality based, I don't feel qualified to make a total judgement on the wisdom of the cedar revolution, BUT, regarding the asministration, I do think some criticism can be lodged there.
They fomented this thing, and declared victory when it happened, then, when the Syrians left, they put it on the "victory" pile and ignored it, even as the new Lebanese gov't was asking for help. I would compare it to the "victory" in Afghanistan.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:02 AM
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