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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

GAO says the "Strategy for Victory" is a failure

I think this is pretty big. Not that GAO reports have any real impact in themselves, but this gives cause and backing for real questions about the current "stand and bleed" Iraq strategy which now is locked in as a political element in the Republican's 2006 midterm campaign. (Good article, worth a read.)
WASHINGTON (AFP) - The investigative arm of the US Congress has openly questioned if victory in Iraq can be achieved without a significant overhaul of President George W. Bush's strategy, arguing the outcome of the war was presently "unclear".....

"It is unclear how the United States will achieve its desired end-state in Iraq given the significant changes in the assumptions underlying the US strategy," the GAO wrote in its report unveiled Tuesday at a hearing in the House of Representatives.

The review focuses on the "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq," a glitzy document released by the White House with great fanfare last November.

The strategy charted what was described at the time as a sound course for overcoming the Iraqi insurgency and turning the country in the first true democracy in the Arab world.

Nine months later, congressional investigators found these high hopes were resting on shaky premises that are quickly melting away.


Perhaps more signage would solve the problem. (November, March)

Also
in Iraq news, it appears the US may be moving more troops into Baghdad. From what "secure area" will they be drawn?

Maliki has no plan B: "Maliki said a national reconciliation plan he has promoted was Iraqis' "last chance" to stem the violence. "If it fails I don't know what the destiny of Iraq will be."

The Army is discontinuing Halliburton's exclusive support contract. They'll be okay, though. With oil prices where they are, their construction and field services divisions will carry them just fine.

And Republicans in congress are itching to "cut and run": "While Washington has resisted setting a timetable for withdrawing troops, many of President George W. Bush's Republican allies are anxious to show progress before the elections in November."

(Also, Juan Cole mentions some quiet discussions that Kurdish troops might be deployed to Baghdad to act as an "honest broker" between the Shia and Sunni. I would presume the cost of this would be Kirkuk and it's oil fields going to the Kurds.)

6 Comments:

  • and yet people still think this war was a good idea.

    By Blogger Graeme, at 9:02 AM  

  • From research I've seen elsewhere, but which should apply in the US, the GOP is in trouble.
    It focuses on key household economic indicators like unemployment, inflation and interest rates.
    The US govt expression of these figures is problematic, but in reality two of the three are in politically negative positions.
    Interest rates are artificially applied now, it seems.
    Given Iraq on top of that and the formula suggests they are going to have their wings clipped. And cut and run probably wouldn't save them either.

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 10:15 AM  

  • Graeme, yeah.

    Cartledge, yes and no. It's really uncertain how much impact that'll have.

    You're right that the indicators point to a tidal wave, but whether that will happen is yet to be determined. I know it sounds unbelievable, but that's the reality.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:44 AM  

  • True Mike.
    But I'll be watching with interest. I know there are major differences in our political systems, but I don't believe there are in the fundamentals.
    This theory has been proven against election results in Australia over 50 years.
    Nothing is fool proof, but I suspect it is still a predictor to watch for.

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 2:02 PM  

  • Ann Coulter predicted that the Dems would win both houses of Congress.

    When she makes a prediction like that, I'm very worried the Dems are in trouble.

    Given that the base may be returning (see most recent Gallup poll), I think it's still too early to tell and a best a toss-up the Dems will win anything.

    Three months is an eternity in politics. And as I said on my blog today, I think the time is ripe for another al Qaeda attack to turn the tide back to the neocon nutbars.

    By Blogger Greyhair, at 3:36 PM  

  • I agree, we're too far out. The ground for the dems is very fertile, but we're yet to see if they can get anything to grow.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 4:08 PM  

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