Some thoughts on Zarqawi - A Grand Bargain.

First, let me say that I'm glad Zarqawi has been stopped. In the lingo of the administration, this was a "bad guy." But let's just explore this story a minute. (Wipe the cobwebs off your tinfoil hat, because I have almost no substantiation for what I'm going to say. If you don't like speculation, skip this post.)

There has been some previous reporting that the Sunni insurgency, the indigenous insurgency which is pursuing solely local goals, had grown increasingly disenchanted with Zarqawi. While Zarqawi was pursuing his vision of Al Qaeda's goals (Al Qaeda didn't like him either,) the major factions in the Sunni insurgency are fighting for domestic political gain, for their relative place and power in the future political structure of Iraq. Although they were more than happy to utilize Zarqawi, as he began to craft himself as a hero/martyr, he became increasingly less useful and began to work at cross purposes. Early on, Zarqawi's successful recruitment of foreign fighters was vital as it provided a core of crack troops to the Sunnis, but as the fighting has stretched on for three years, idigineous Iraqi Sunnis have had the opportunity to "train up," making those foreign fighters loose guns. (I can't search for supporting links right now because of blogger. Aaaargh.)

Now, that being said, let's look at the timing of the major Iraq events over the last few days. Iraqi Prime minister Maliki agrees to a release of 2,500 Sunni prisoners, making a "downpayment" release of 600 yesterday morning. Within hours after the release, the knowledge of Zarqawi's whereabouts suddenly becomes certain,

"Last night was the first time that we have had definitive, unquestionable information as to exactly where [al-Zarqawi] was located, knowing that we could strike that target without causing collateral damage to other Iraqi civilians and personnel in the area," Caldwell said.

Then, this morning, a short time after the announcement of Zarqawi's killing, Maliki is suddenly able to announce an agreement on new Defense and Interior Ministers.

This series of events reads to me like a grand bargain was struck between the Sunnis and the Maliki government. Release some Sunni prisoners, some early as good faith, and we will give you Zarqawi and stop opposition to the Ministerial appointments.

This deal makes sense for all sides. The Sunnis gain the release of thousands of their people, but more importantly rid themselves of Zarqawi in a way that they will not be blamed for. The Maliki government gets rid of a major security threat and gets it's ministerial appointments. Oh, and the US gets to claim the kill which is good domestic PR and takes the anger off the Shia government averting another wave of sectarian reprisals. It's win-win-win.

Just a working theory. It may change.

(I have no proof, and I find it unlikely that if this is true, we will get any, because the only way this works is if the official story holds. Also, I can't edit this once it goes up, so if there're any major glaring errors, please be kind.)

UPDATE: The NYTimes offers a vague description of "an Iraqi informant inside Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia provided the critical piece of intelligence."

And from a DoD press release, "Tips and intelligence from Iraqi senior leaders from his network led forces to al-Zarqawi."