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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, June 19, 2006

Iraqi Amnesty - next step, or last step?

The LATimes is reporting that the amnesty plan for insurgents in Iraq may well be broader than previously reported. The earlier announced plan allowed amnesty for those who had attacked against US forces(which the Republicans in Congress full throatedly supported,) but the latest version of the plan seems to include just about everyone.
The amnesty plan, which apparently would include insurgents alleged to have staged attacks against Americans and Iraqis, calls for the creation of a national committee and local subcommittees to woo rebels and begin a "truthful national dialogue in dealing with contradicting visions and stances," according to a version of the plan published Saturday in an Iraqi newspaper.....

"Theoretically, we can say we cannot give any amnesty to those in the [former] security agencies and those in Saddam's regime and those who have killed and bombed Iraqis after the invasion," said Salah Abdul Razzaq, a spokesman for several prominent Shiite religious organizations.

"In practice, anyone who comes to negotiations and says, 'I have no problem with Iraqis or Iraqi government, just with U.S. forces,' how can we check that?"

So, my question is this, is this absolute amnesty offer, in the broadest sense, a real step toward coming to a settled political government, or is it the last chip Maliki has to play in an effort to end the violence and hold it all together?

My hunch is the latter, that this is a desperate attempt to siphon off Sunni insurgents.

Quite frankly, this is a pretty big step to utilize this early. Coupled with the prisoner release, what else does Maliki have to offer going forward? And, if this fails and factional violence continues, which it will, and Iraqis pick up their guns again even in self protection, which they will, how much credibility will the next round of conciliatory offers have?

If it works, it's brilliant. But if it doesn't, it closes another avenue for the Maliki government, and the government's that may come soon after.

2 Comments:

  • This is going to be an extensive (and un-/anti-American) amnesty offer.

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 2:32 PM  

  • Yeah. And politically there, giving amnesty against attacks on Americans is a winner with the groups most against Maliki's government.

    And the US really won't do anything about it because he's the only horse.

    But I wonder how across the board amnesty will fly for Sunni car bombs against the Shia? Will they accept it or will it just make them madder?

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:46 PM  

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