Was Harriet Miers "jumping the shark?"
As I was lying in bed last night I got to thinking about the great Bush slide in approval ratings. (yes, I know I'm obsessed) Was Harriet Miers the "jumping the shark" moment?
You could certainly make the case that it is Iraq or Katrina that delivered the body blow to Bush's public opinion, but in my memory, it was during the Harriet Miers nomination that the Republican base, first voiced organized dissent. It was at that point that Bush started to lose significant support among the Republicans. (This also says something about Republicans, I think.)
So, keeping with the sitcom analogy, after all, I know more people on TV than I know in real life, Bolten's White House reshuffle is bound to fail.
Because, seriously, when the kids have grown up and they're no longer cute, what sitcom has ever gotten better when they added that new cute kid? (Tony Snow)
You could certainly make the case that it is Iraq or Katrina that delivered the body blow to Bush's public opinion, but in my memory, it was during the Harriet Miers nomination that the Republican base, first voiced organized dissent. It was at that point that Bush started to lose significant support among the Republicans. (This also says something about Republicans, I think.)
So, keeping with the sitcom analogy, after all, I know more people on TV than I know in real life, Bolten's White House reshuffle is bound to fail.
Because, seriously, when the kids have grown up and they're no longer cute, what sitcom has ever gotten better when they added that new cute kid? (Tony Snow)
posted by mikevotes at
8:05 AM
15 Comments:
Frankly, I'm just disturbed that you were laying in bed thinking of Harriet Miers.
You disgust me.
By
-epm, at 10:43 AM
I think you're looking at Bush's "slide" in the polls in a way that is backward.
If you look back at the polls, Bush began sliding right out of the chute. In a sense, 911 saved him and has been the only event between the beginning and today that represented a "trend line" up. Otherwise, Bush's long term trend numbers look like a nice mountain slope down to the valley.
In a real sense, his slide began with his election.
By
Greyhair, at 10:47 AM
I think the Miers nomination was the tipping point, partly for the reasons you state but also because this was Bush's personal choice... and one of the Bush groupies that followed the Dear Leader from Texas. There was no way for him to shift the blame to generals or staffers... or Bill Clinton.
It was a pulling back the curtain moment...
By
-epm, at 10:49 AM
I love your analogy of the fading sit-com bringing in the new cute kid to try and save the show. This was always the sign that the show was about to be canceled.
By
left-over, at 10:54 AM
I would concur with -epm, at least the first part. I’m more and more surprised by the fantasies of red blooded Americans.
I’ve been looking at the wider slide across the coalition. Blair was actually in a far stronger position than Blair before the Iraq adventure. They are close to neck and neck now, with Blair tipped to have only months left as Britain’s PM.
Berlusconi, albeit reluctantly, has now gone; voted out by a narrow margin, but still out.
The less said about Australia’s John Howard the better, but his star has still faded.
Whatever the trigger Iraq remains the underlying thorn.
By
Cartledge, at 11:07 AM
greyhair, that's a pretty good argument.
I don't fully disagree with you, but just for the sake of it, let me redefine a little. That was the point that the Republican erosion really began on a significant scale. 9-11 did pull alot of dems to approve, and they faded off, then Iraq invasion gave another smaller bump, and since then they have completely faded off. But, although Republican support really started to slightly ebb away in the summer of last year, it wasn't until Harriet Miers, then Dubai ports, than the Repub support really started to turn. And, I would argue, that Bush was willing to govern with only Republican support because Congress would stand with him, but when their voters started to dislike Bush, so did they.
And, EPM, I can assure you that I did not go to sleep dreaming of Miers, it just crossed my mind. I do occasionally drift to sleep with a happy little smile imagining Karl Rove in handcuffs. And not like that.
And, leftover, this show is over, unfortunately there's still a contract for another two and a half years, maybe if we moved it to a less important time slot.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:10 AM
Pull up a chart showing poll numbers from day one. Draw the trend line (like technical analysis in stocks). And ask youself.
Would I buy this stock?
Hell. I'd short it.
;)
Seriously. I'm saying that his demise was cooked into the books right from the outset ... 911 or no 911. It's inherent in the man. He's a fuck up. The issues you mention are indeed milestones. I'm saying that if it hadn't been those, it would have been others.
Like the old saying. "You can't teach a pig to sing. It only irritates the pig."
Bush is a pig.
By
Greyhair, at 11:15 AM
Mike: And, EPM, I can assure you that I did not go to sleep dreaming of Miers, it just crossed my mind.
OK, I won't push the issue. I'll just remind you that denial ain't just a river in Egypt. :)
greyhair: Would I buy this stock?
Hence the Murdoch fundraiser for Hillary.
While the trend lines may have been downward -- particularly after his re-election and buyer's remorse set in -- certainly there was a point where that line started an accelerated bend downward. Maybe it wasn't Miers, but something caused his numbers to go to hell fast...
By
-epm, at 11:36 AM
I agree. The failure was in the character all along like a classic stage tragedy.
I wish I had had the ability to short Bush way back when I had my awakening. I had reservations before, but during the intel phase pre Iraq, my eyes were opened. I would have done quite well, wouldn't I?
And as for the charting, you're correct on the trendlines, we've talked about it before, but I think it's necessary to imagine it as a stacked line graph with Republican support as red at bottom and Dem blue on top combining for the total number. Although the topline number has been trending down, almost all of that was Dems and then independents. That red section at the bottom always established a ratings floor. So, when the floor started to collapse, I think that was the key turningpoint.
The whole thing trends downward consistently because of the timing and the fact that now that Repubs are pulling off, there are no dem numbers left to fade away which gives a steady slide to the combined number.
Hope that makes some sense.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 11:37 AM
I'm voting for the Teri Schiavo fiasco as the moment of truth. It blatantly showed a level of hypocrisy and pandering not often put on public display. It turned off a lot of people. Then Katrina further showed who really cares about whom.
By
Lynn, at 11:53 AM
Funny.
After commenting this morning, I ran across something in Froomkin's post that says what I'm trying to say beautifully. So not to blog whore, but go check it out:
http://bendtherail.blogspot.com/2006/05/trend.html
By
Greyhair, at 1:19 PM
That's not a bad turning point either Lynn, I hadn't really considered it. That was a very public point where they lost the center of the country in an effort to shoot at their base.
I never mind, Greyhair. You tend to express complex thoughts and disagree through reasoned argument. I love that.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:38 PM
Mike I hope you don't mind - I was inspired by your sitcom analogy and sort of took the ball and ran with it a little here.
By
left-over, at 3:17 PM
Very interesting point.
By
Bravo 2-1, at 4:43 PM
Also, I don't know what to make of Tony Snow's shifting start date. Last week it was supposed to be Monday, then, Monday it was supposed to be thursday, today, it's now scheduled for next Monday.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 8:54 PM
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