The polling reality
The AP/Ipsos poll is getting alot of blogging "ink" this morning (Bush approval 36/62,) but take just a minute to look at the broader picture either at Polling Report (a hundred polls back to Sept. '05) or Real Clear Politics(more polls included but only back to January.)
For six months the disapprove number has been over 50%, that, I think, could be called solid and unmoving opposition. These are long held ideas and it's not like those people are going to just suddenly switch back into the Bush camp.
For six months the disapprove number has been over 50%, that, I think, could be called solid and unmoving opposition. These are long held ideas and it's not like those people are going to just suddenly switch back into the Bush camp.
posted by mikevotes at
8:34 AM
5 Comments:
I think your analysis is accurate. The lines are drawn.
By
Bravo 2-1, at 11:08 AM
Just following up on yesterday's post elsewhere Mike:
“These numbers are scary. We've lost every advantage we've ever had,” GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio said. “The good news is Democrats don't have much of a plan. The bad news is they may not need one.” (SignOnSanDieago)
Interesting to hear it from them!
By
Cartledge, at 12:00 PM
You're right about the solid opposition to Bush, Mike.
The "disapprove" number is always over 50% now and the "strongly disapprove" number is about 45% in nearly ever poll I've looked at lately.
That sure sounds like solid opposition to me.
By
Reality-Based Educator, at 12:42 PM
Yeah, my belief is that those numbers are solid, but they're not etched in stone. Not likely to happen before Novenmber, but a real good economy that reaches down into the pockets of the working class might make a difference in perception, assuming that somehow Iraq is forgotten about. I don't see it as particularly likely with current policy, but a change in individual fortunes and perception would make a difference in the disapprove number.
My main point was that it's not like the Republicans are going to be able to turn this with just one thing, even a big thing like capturing Bin Laden. Certainly individual events would have impact, but it would take a sustained period at this point to make a difference.
Yeah, Cartledge, I saw that quote, too. I'd far rather hear them talking about their inability to communicate their programs or somesuch. I don't really want them to recognize the hole yet.
Mike
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:03 PM
Gents it's the magic "Nixonian twenty percent" that we're looking for. :-)
By
Anonymous, at 2:25 PM
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