Is this the conventional wisdom now?
Three months ago, the conventional wisdom among the commentariat seemed to be that the Dems would need a lot of breaks to retake the house or senate.(I still think that's somewhat true if you go district by district.)
But in the wake of this White House "shuffle," general opinion seems to be crystallizing around something like this.
If this shift in the narrative is maintained, it is important. If the Dems winning becomes the expected result, it will give them all the momentum and have the Republicans fighting a defensive, uphill battle. Every interview will begin with questions over whether they can "manage to win enough seats," and "how damaging is the 'Bush factor'" forcing them to start from that position.
The irony of a situation like this is that the repetition of the conventional wisdom will further weaken the president politically as candidates try to distance which will further reinforce the cycle. Ask John Kerry about the power of conventional wisdom and having to defend allegations of weakness that never had any real basis.
The election is a long way away, but....
But in the wake of this White House "shuffle," general opinion seems to be crystallizing around something like this.
While that goal remains central to those closest to Bush, the focus at the White House for the foreseeable future will be trying to revitalize this presidency quickly enough to avoid crippling GOP losses in November that could thrust Bush into instant lame-duck status.
If this shift in the narrative is maintained, it is important. If the Dems winning becomes the expected result, it will give them all the momentum and have the Republicans fighting a defensive, uphill battle. Every interview will begin with questions over whether they can "manage to win enough seats," and "how damaging is the 'Bush factor'" forcing them to start from that position.
The irony of a situation like this is that the repetition of the conventional wisdom will further weaken the president politically as candidates try to distance which will further reinforce the cycle. Ask John Kerry about the power of conventional wisdom and having to defend allegations of weakness that never had any real basis.
The election is a long way away, but....
posted by mikevotes at
8:40 AM
6 Comments:
I think the most salient thing you said in the post is, "The election is a long way away,"
To state the obvious, the further away from the election, the more likely to be wrong. But I think it's a kick to do it myself.
I think the Senate is out of reach. I'd put the House at no better than 50/50 right now.
The election is not all that important.... Only the future of the Republic hangs in the balance.....
By
Greyhair, at 11:57 AM
Yeah, I keep trying to emphasize that everytime I see a poll. The Senate's going to be tough because the Dems have to pick up something like 6 seats with only 33 or 34 up for election, BUT, the Senate seats aren't gerrymandered.
I'm not enough of a wonk to go through all the congressional districts, but, at least here in Texas, the Repub districts are mostly gerrymandered about 55/45 or so. So, if the Dems manage a 10 point swing, all of them are up for grabs, but that's a tall order. In Texas, it will be alot or none that flip and I would guess that's more or less consistent in a lot of the states.
And alot is going to happen between now and Nov, even excluding intentional pre election events. That'll have a big impact.
But I do think that if the conventional wisdom were to stay where it is today, every Repub that goes onto a national talk show will have to defend or explain their relationship with Bush, and I don't think that's something they really want to do.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 1:40 PM
commentariat ? I love it!
I won't give odds on the election, but there are a lot of points to claw back.
By
Cartledge, at 3:31 PM
I stole that from somebody a couple days ago and I find it very useful. Far better than pundits or whatever because it emphasizes their unique status within the system. That they are a different class.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 4:39 PM
It's great to watch them "revitalize" before Rove gets indicted. And before the Abramoff congressmen and senator get carted off.
By
JUSIPER, at 8:18 PM
Yeah, but it looks far better before the indictment than after.
Mike
By
mikevotes, at 9:45 PM
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