The Iran/Iraq connection - Why Iraq hasn't formed a government yet?

Over the last four months since the Iraq parliamentary elections were held, I have read a number of explanations by experts, almost all of them focusing on the "sectarian divides" and "historical animosities" that preclude a consensus on a unity government.

But, today, I came across a working theory at Steve Gilliard's blog that makes more sense than anything I've heard out of any of the commentariat.

"The reason they aren't forming a government is that the Iranians don't want one formed."

This is almost a throwaway line at the end of a long post, and I don't completely concur with what is written later, but it is the utter simplicity of this statement that overwhelmed me. It served as a eureka moment in my understanding of the current foreign policy.

Think about the suituation the Bush administration has created through their middle east foreign policy. The Iraq war cannot resolve itself until a unity government is formed. The Iranians hold sway over the majority party and can guarantee through them that no government will form. And, the Bush administration is ratcheting up pressure on Iran over its nuclear program giving Iran every incentive to keep Iraq an open wound for the Americans.

Now, if this is true, the only resolution for "victory" in Iraq would be a resolution in Iran that would cripple the Iranians ability, or willingness, to keep the US deeply mired in its current conflict. I see only two possible resolutions that would cause the Iranians to back off.

The rational choice would be a negotiated diplomatic settlement with Iran, and a staged withdrawal from Iraq. But with this administration's current stance of no direct negotiations with Iran and avowal to not allow a nuclear Iran, not to mention the political considerations that render an Iraq withdrawal unthinkable to this administration, that leaves only one other option on the table for this administration.

Regime change in Iran. A war. A really big war.

In other words, the short sighted Bush foreign policy has created a situation where every pressure is for Iraq to get worse and the only way to resolve Iraq within the current foreign policy would be to attempt to topple the Iranian regime.

So we're going to war.

And we did not have to be here.

(Let me state very clearly that I favor a negotiated settlement with Iran and a staged withdrawal from Iraq. The "call to war" in this piece is solely framed within what I believe to be the Bush foreign policy thinking for this region. It doesn't have to be this way, but this is where I think we are with Iran.

Also, let me remention the "Date the Iran Bombing" contest. I still haven't decided on a prize, but we've got 20 entries so far. To participate just leave a comment on this post or that one and I'll add you to the list.)