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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Tuesday, April 11, 2006

"Date the Iran Bombing" Contest

Okay, I've officially started the pool. Your challenge, pick the date that the first bomb will drop in Iran. Entries can be made in the comments of this post or by email. The prize is yet to be determined, but if someone actually does hit the date on the head, I'll have something for you.

The following dates are already claimed.

April 19 - Vic
April 22 - Nolocontendre
June 19 - Micheal the Tubthumper
July 7 - Fredo
August 15 - voteforme_imfree
Aug 27 - Bruce O
Labor Day weekend - Quaker Dave
Sept 7 - Wild Bill
Sept 19 - me
Sept 25 - Praguetwin
Oct 9 - Topsider
Oct 17 - Jobsanger
Oct 20 - Greyhair
Oct 21 - Sindy
Oct 29 - Kathy
Oct 30-31 - Reality Based Educator
Nov 4 - Left Over
Nov 17 - Time
Nov 22 - Lew Scannon
Dec 2 - motherlode
Dec 7 - Judy
Dec 12 - "G"

2007
Jan 27 - Lew Scannon
March 15 - Libby
July 4 - Justin Barker
Oct 11 - Copy Editor


Recruit your friends.

(bombirancontest)

posted by mikevotes at 7:18 AM

30 Comments:

  • Put me down for November 4. That gives the networks ample time to negotiate their camera location inside Iran. And 48 hours of explosions prior to election day.

    By Blogger left-over, at 10:35 PM  

  • i'll go for june 19th

    By Blogger michael the tubthumper, at 1:52 AM  

  • July, 4 2007 which should put the end of the world on January 1st 2009.

    By Blogger Justin, at 5:04 AM  

  • do we have to get it exact or does the nearest win?

    By Blogger michael the tubthumper, at 6:36 AM  

  • I don't know, Michael. I think you're putting a little too much into this.

    Let's say, closest gets the title, but only right on gets "the prize" whatever that's going to be.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 7:01 AM  

  • I'll pick October 29, 2006. That day is a Sunday, which means more of us are home in front of our televisions, but its still a week before midterm elections and that gives the administration enough time to spin it their way and convince the masses not to change course now.

    By the way, I've heard people comment that Bush would never condone nuking Iran simply because it would cut off the supply of oil to Americans, which would further erode his popularity here at home. I don't agree with that assessment simply because I don't think he cares about the American people.

    By Blogger Kathy, at 9:34 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Kathy, at 9:34 AM  

  • I don't think Bush will attack Iran until after the congressional elections, so I'll take December 2.

    But here's another date we can speculate on -- when Bush will authorize a major escalation in the Iraq war, an all-out assault on the insurgents in an attempt to put some "wins" up on the Iraq scoreboard. And THAT I'll take odds will take happen before the '06 elections, sometime around August 2.

    By Blogger Motherlode, at 11:18 AM  

  • Here is my ‘outsider’s’ scenario, but dare I mention the date?
    Any strike on Iran will be all about election imperatives and nothing about security. It will, in short, be a massive PR job.
    The trigger will be, in fact must be, manufactured. That is nothing particularly new in the history of war.
    To ameliorate negative public opinion, or more correctly, to ensure positive public opinion, the trigger and the date will have significant emotional impact on US citizens in particular. Which is why I hesitate to name the day!

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 11:50 AM  

  • The more I thought about picking a date, the more I had to think about the realities of the situation. The more I thought about the realities of the situation, the sicker I got. The sicker I got, the more urgent it became for me to get my family's passports in order.

    I tried to find a funny way of responding, but all I could think about were my children and the f'ing damnable mess of a world we're leaving them. We've already ensured their standard of living will be worse than ours. Now it looks like their security of living will be greatly diminished as well.

    By Blogger -epm, at 12:28 PM  

  • EPM,

    I share your concerns. I recognized last night as I lay in bed that this whole contest is in pretty poor taste, but I decided to leave it up for two reasons.

    1. I try not to "disappear" posts as a matter of ethics. I know I'm not a news service or anything, but I think that if I do something wrong, I should stand up to it.

    2. When I was considering my "entry" I had to think about all the factors, the character of this administration, the rhetoric, Iraq, the weight of domestic politics upon such a decision...

    And I actually found that kind of worthwhile. It forced me into associations that I wouldn't normally formally make.

    For instance, would this administration bomb Iran for purely domestic political reasons? Yes, but what would be the optimum point?

    It just framed the question a little differently in a way that I found interesting.

    I recognize that the end point of this excercise is the extermination of human lives, but I don't think anything I write here would stop that, so then I move on to awareness. And as an awareness excercise, I think it's ok.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:03 PM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger QuakerDave, at 2:11 PM  

  • Labor Day Weekend. They'll think we're not paying attention.

    Most of us won't be.

    By Blogger QuakerDave, at 2:12 PM  

  • Yeah, Kathy, but it would affect the bottom line of businesses and that is Bush's constituency.

    And, Motherlode, I've been wondering about that escalation date myself. I figure it has to be coming at some point, certainly after a new Iraqi gov't is seated, so not yet.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:47 PM  

  • January 27, 2007. Bush will use the SOTU address to give an ultimatum to Iran, even though the plan is under way. Also, there has been some speculation as to whether or not there will be another 'terrorist' attack to precede this, partially to also help boost Bush's approval rating, but I don't see that happening as another attack will make Bush look even more incompetent.

    By Blogger Lew Scannon, at 4:57 PM  

  • I disagree. I'm prone to thinking there will be a terror attack or some other precipitating event. For example, Sy Hersh reported on US army operating in Iran, one of them gets caught or a plane shootdown, or or a ship sinking. Or something attributable in Iraq. There's alot of possibilities.

    I just think there will be a "Remember the Maine" moment of some kind. It gives such a strong baseline peg to the propaganda.

    Mike

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 5:39 PM  

  • It is known globally that Bush has nuclear invasion in mind. What makes you think the US will be the first to attack? In my opinion, given the historical war "games" I would say the US will drop a bomb, after some type of attack on the US. August 15.
    PS, no prize for me thanks, donate whatever to the suffering

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:18 PM  

  • April 19th...

    1) Shots fired at Concord, MA.
    2) Branch Davidian Massacre at Waco
    3) Oklahoma City Bombing
    4) Third Antichrist (Bush) revealed!

    Vic Blazier, Operation Iraqi Oil Vet
    www.inkwellinsurgency.com
    "Peace -not pieces, idiot"

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:12 PM  

  • At first I was betting on sometime around now. March/April 2006.

    Now I'm starting to think that nothing will happen. Call me crazy.

    All this talk about using force on Iran is BS. It would backfire horribly and cause catastrophe, and Bush et al know this. So do the Iranians.

    If you watch US propaganda, you'd think the entire world was united against Iran. Obviously this is not the case.

    This is what will prevent military action against Iran. Russia and China won't go for it at all. They won't let oil go to $200 a barrel.

    By Blogger beervolcano, at 12:11 PM  

  • I don't think it's in bad taste but what do I know? I've participated in death pools about other bloggers.

    I think with public opinion so low that they won't risk a bombing before Nov unless they can either manufacture or incite a terror attack on US soil before then. Failing that, I see them launching a "major offensive" in Iraq before Nov to deflect the inability of the new gov't to quell the civil war. That will likely happen in late Sept, early Oct.

    The first bomb in Iran, and I'm sickening certain this meglomaniac is going to do it for "his legacy," will be in March again I think. I'll pick March 15th at random.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 12:45 PM  

  • Real soon - April 22, Earth day. Remember the first Gulf Slaughter started MLK day, Jan 15. They love that shit.

    By Blogger nolocontendere, at 2:21 AM  

  • Put me down for October 17th of this year. Georgie is stupid enough to think more war will translate to more republican votes.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:41 PM  

  • August 27th. It came to me in a dream last night.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:11 PM  

  • Ill take September 25th 2006. Exactly two weeks after the 5 year.

    By Blogger Praguetwin, at 6:13 AM  

  • Bearing in mind Mikle's recent post - You've got a friend - do you think this exersise will become a research aid to the choice of date. If so, I'm going for Feb 2 2110.

    By Blogger Cartledge, at 12:17 PM  

  • Notch me as 10/11/2007. I did my homework.

    By Blogger Bravo 2-1, at 3:19 PM  

  • Time - says,

    After the elections and before Thanksgiving. Friday night after the press goes home.

    November 17, 2006 10pm EST Friday

    By Blogger Unknown, at 10:41 PM  

  • I am thinking this march, 2007 somewhen inside the window of the new moon in april (19th) and the april 22nd, which is the anniversary in the islamic calendar of the return of Kohmeni back in 1979 (feb 1st gregorian). Every year the Iranians celebrate the return of Kohmeni, and the declaration of an Islamic republic, and light up all the cities. New Moon, 'targets'(sic) fully illuminated? too much for Team Cheney to pass up.

    If not at that time, then for sure on the new moon of april. the dry season starts around then, which means clear sat. shots for the next 4-5 months.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:30 AM  

  • xmtr AT riseup DOT net. email me if i am close. tnx.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 7:31 AM  

  • March 19th 2007. This is a day when there is a new moon so miltarily it would be ideal to launch an attack on this date. Also, it comes 4 days after the Ides of March which is the 15th. The attack will commence 2.09 am Tehran Time

    Alex

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 4:59 AM  

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