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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Friday, March 03, 2006

But what does Pakistan get?

After reading some of the details of the India Nuclear agreement, legitimization of India's abrogation of the nonproliferation treaty, reopening nuclear and defense technology transfers, I'm left with the question, "but what will Pakistan get out of this?"

Historically, when the US offers something to one side of the India/Pakistan rivalry, the other side gets some sort of conciliatory grant, be it weapons purchases, a shift in trade laws, or a domestic allowance of some kind, in example, not criticizing Musharraf for his human rights violations.

So I'll certainly be keeping my eyes open probably for a big weapons deal although the Pakistani giveaway might be something not seen like allowing them to slack off operations in the tribal areas or looking the other way on their ongoing military operations against anti government forces in the south who have nothing to do with Al Qaeda.

The US's payoffs are pretty clear in the deal. In attempting to draw influence with India, the US is trying to create a counterbalancing regional force against China.

That's the single sentence answer, but beyond the regional aspects, this is actually a pretty big play to try to bring India into the American camp. India has historically led the non-aligned nations movement which has worked against US foreign policy fairly consistently. Also, India is one of the two active and vocal partners in the BRIC(Brazil, Russia, India, and China) element in the international trade negotiations which has largely torpedoed the US's world trade deal plans.

So, this is a pretty big effort by the Bush administration to remake the global alliances that are underpinning the current geopolitical status. But, I gotta say, I shiver a little when I write the words "Bush" and "remake" after seeing the recent results of the previous efforts to "remake the middle east."

Update: We're already getting a little of it.
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - President Bush rewarded this anti-terror ally Friday, minimizing U.S. concerns about democracy's pace and anti-American sentiment in favor of a high-profile visit to boost Pakistan's global standing.

1 Comments:

  • There are many, many ramifications of the wrecking balls efforts on the international stage. You've outlined a few, so have I. I suspect there will be many more in the coming days.

    By Blogger Greyhair, at 11:44 AM  

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