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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Monday, March 22, 2010

Don't let the score trick you into thinking it was a close game

One of the early analyses that I've seen that already annoys me is the idea that the healthcare bill "barely passed" last night.

That's way too simplistic, especially from "Washington" reporters.

What really happens is that they corral enough votes by a safe margin, let's guess 240, and then begin to "release" specific Congressmen facing tough reelection in Republican districts to allow them to vote no.

The minute they confirmed the vote would be Sunday night, they already had the votes by a safe margin. Everything after that was Kabuki for the optics.

Later: Second stupid analysis: The passage was good for Obama but bad for Dems.

If Obama looks good, Democrats look good. It's that simple.


  • I think that NOW the media will finally report on what's actually IN HCR. Perhaps some of the frightened massess will actually be confronted with, you know, actual truth. Maybe some will be conflicted between their general fear and paranoia and actually LIKING something HCR gives them ( "I can keep my kid on my insurance policy 'till she's 26? I didn't know that...")

    Though I doubt most -- if any -- of these conservative/libertarian/secessionists/Nativist (whatever they are) get ANY information from anywhere but Fox News and conservative hate radio. So, they'll probably stew in their fear and loathing forever.

    By Blogger -epm, at 11:36 AM  

  • One of the really wierd things is that almost all of this bill is not enacted until much later, so people's experience with it will not necessarily be personal.

    And you're never going to turn the hardcore, but you can influence the middle which will force alot of Republicans to back away from this new third rail.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 12:07 PM  

  • There are some very practical insurance reforms that kick in in 6 mos, I believe. If there's a chance of screwing things up, the Dems probably will, bet there's a lot of good stuff they can point to come November.

    For over a year, the media narrative has been about an ominous bill... born in the darkness of back room special deals.... a bill too complicated for mere mortals to understand, and the loud angry "regular folk" who fought tooth and nail against it. Maybe, just maybe, the media narrative might change now. That, as much as anything, will reduce the trepidation real regular folks might have had.

    By Blogger -epm, at 12:26 PM  

  • 6 months is after 2010, though, so they can both run on the theory.

    For the Dems better to have passed the bill than not. For the Reubs, vice versa.

    And, I'm kinda waiting a couple days to see what the narrative becomes. Thus far, it seems Obama/Dems positive, Repubs negative.

    I don't think the Repubs were really ready if it passed.

    And how does Senate blockading look in the next reconciliation step.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:18 PM  

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