Peak oil
The top oil estimater at the IAEA says there will be an oil production peak in 10 years as current fields begin to mark their decline.
This is a very inexact field of estimate, and we've heard alot of this before, but when one of the top oil guys at the IAEA puts his name on a fairly near term prediction, I think we have to notice.
(PS. There's a ton of oil in tar sands and other hard to get places, so we're not going to run out of oil. The issue is much more about extraction cost. The tar sands and some of the other untapped/undertapped reserves are out there, they're just in an entirely different extraction cost tier.
There will always be oil. It's just a question of cost and how different cost tiers (and their onsets) will alter the economy.)
This is a very inexact field of estimate, and we've heard alot of this before, but when one of the top oil guys at the IAEA puts his name on a fairly near term prediction, I think we have to notice.
(PS. There's a ton of oil in tar sands and other hard to get places, so we're not going to run out of oil. The issue is much more about extraction cost. The tar sands and some of the other untapped/undertapped reserves are out there, they're just in an entirely different extraction cost tier.
There will always be oil. It's just a question of cost and how different cost tiers (and their onsets) will alter the economy.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:34 AM
2 Comments:
Super interesting. I for one, am concerned about the immediate consequences of declining cheap oil, but excited to see us adapt to a lower supply of usable oil.
By
c'รจ montessori, at 9:14 AM
Agreed. The question is the level of "jolt" as we adjust.
By
mikevotes, at 10:10 AM
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