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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

A midterm game changer

I have long contended that Middle East peace is an Obama priority, but this is still a bit of a surprise.
Barack Obama is close to brokering an Israeli-Palestinian deal that will allow him to announce a resumption of the long-stalled Middle East peace talks before the end of next month, according to US, Israeli, Palestinian and European officials.


The trade with the Israelis is this,
The US, along with Britain and France, is planning to push the United Nations security council to expand sanctions to include Iran's oil and gas industry, a move that could cripple its economy.

In return, the Israeli government will be expected to agree to a partial freeze on the construction of settlements in the Middle East.


We'll have to later see if there's any real progress, but, in the midterm, this will likely shift domestic coverage more positively.

posted by mikevotes at 7:26 AM

8 Comments:

  • Carpet trading. Getting Russia and China on message will be the key as usual.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:49 AM  

  • Yeah. I don't think it goes through.

    But from an Obama administration standpoint, getting the parties sitting at the table again would be a PR coup.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 10:12 AM  

  • No point in getting them to talk until you decide what to talk about. I see your friend Joe is working on the Iran sanctions.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 10:41 AM  

  • So basically, we will fight to impose sanctions on a country that has yet to found in any violation of it's duties according to the NPT in exchange for another country continuing to violate numerous UN resolutions, only not as much. That Obama sure drives a hard bargain.

    By Blogger Lew Scannon, at 7:30 PM  

  • Anon, I get your point, but I sorta disagree. After everything that passed in the Bush admin, getting them in the same picture would be a step.

    (But, then you run the risk of giving those against alot more time to derail.)

    ....

    Lew, yes. That's where we are.

    Besides, as Anon points out above, such sanction threats are just words. The Chinese and Russians would never agree to significant energy sanctions.

    So, it's empty threats for the ISraelis getting in the photo.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:32 PM  

  • Iran won't accept preconditions. The sanctions are a prelude to military action. That's what Israel wants. Obama could get caught in the classic Catch 22...choosing between potentially disastrous military action or looking weak.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 9:54 PM  

  • What draws you to the conclusion that this set of sanctions is prelude to military action?

    I'm not saying that some sort of strike, likely ISraeli isn't possible, but I don't see a direct line connection between these proposed sanctions and military action.

    (The Russians and Chinese would be pissed over military action. IRan is theirs.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 6:55 AM  

  • It depends how the sanctions are enforced. I can see numerous scenarios. Stopping and searching foreign vessels is a serious matter even if it's done under the UN umbrella. To my mind it's designed to provoke an Iranian reaction which will justify military action.

    And I don't believe it's simply a matter of allowing inspectors into Iran. The Iranians know they can never prove a negative.

    But you're right about the Russians and the Chinese. They know what's going on.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 8:58 AM  

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