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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

The light at the end of the tunnel.?

The survey of 45 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) on Wednesday found almost three-quarters expected the economic downturn to end by the third quarter of this year.

The remaining saw the turning point delayed until either the last quarter of this year or the first three months of 2010. None of the respondents believed the recession, now in its 17th month, would extend beyond the first quarter of 2010.


  • I think those carefully-showcased reports are just cheerleading. I think their intention is to spur spending in the population, as a feel-good self-fulfilling prophecy that will hopefully lead to a real recovery.
    I also think that credit card debt is the next newsmaker after housing prices bottom out.
    Essentially, our economy has been hollowed out, due to offshoring, lack of a manufacturing base, and usury. It will be some time before we become the powerhouse we've gotten used to thinking we are, and it won't happen unless we actually produce something of value that supports a stable currency.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:37 AM  

  • I get your point that there is a real tendency towards happy talk, but, right now, it does look like consumer confidence and such is already turning around a bit.

    We are primarily a consumer economy, and, assuming the interbusiness credit crunch has eased a bit, consumer mood is one of the bigger elements towards turning things around.

    I'm not arguing the fundamentals are better. I'm saying that in our society with no cultural or historical memory beyond a few months, peoples moods can change despite the very real problems.

    That doesn't sort out the much larger problems, like losing manufacturing and basing an economy on shuffling stuff around, but it does mean we can get back on a steadier path. (Even if that path is a guide down.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 1:51 PM  

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