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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Fku

Interesting historical numbers from the WaPo as they try to calm down their coverage,
A major unknown is the swine flu virus's "case-fatality rate" -- the small fraction of infected people who die. For the 1918 influenza, it was 2 to 2.5 percent for the United States as a whole, but in military camps and on troop ships, the rate was a brutal 7 to 10 percent, and in some Inuit villages, it soared to 70 percent.

The other two flu pandemics of the 20th century, however, were far milder. The Asian influenza of 1957-58 had a fatality rate of 0.2-0.5, and the rate during the Hong Kong influenza of 1968-69 was even lower, about 0.1 percent, close to what it is for seasonal flu.....

Regardless of how dangerous it proves to be, the new swine flu virus is almost certain to eventually infect every continent and country, although that may take years. Studies in the 1930s found that 97 percent of people born before 1920 had antibodies to the Spanish influenza virus. That's evidence that virtually everyone alive in the three years it circulated -- 1918, 1919 and 1920 -- was at one point infected, even if they didn't know it.

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