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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Unbelievable from Georgia

In 2004, 3.25 million people in Georgia cast votes for President.

This year, the Sec State is estimating that 2 million Georgians will have voted early. Almost 2/3 of the 2004 turnout has voted early.


  • If Georgia goes to Obama, PA won't do McCain any good.

    Generally, a heavy turnout is a good sign for Democrats, and the question was always whether the AA voters would turn out or not. It appears that they are.

    As with all of these states, the foundation is there for the future due to the huge amount of voter data that has been collected. Hundreds of thousands of Georgians will discover that voting for a Democrat does not automatically usher in the End Times, and their susceptibility to GOP propaganda is greatly diminished. And all of these people will be targets for the mid-terms, so that campaigns can spend their money going after likely voters. It's a domino effect.

    This is how the stranglehold of the GOP will be broken in several red states, that were only red because the Democrats never made a serious play for them since the '60s.

    Hopefully the Democrats will make follow-up efforts post-election to identify actual voters and reliable supporters, and make the database even more valuable. All of the data from 2004 just disappeared, but this data is even more valuable in the long-term.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 2:09 PM  

  • Oh man, are they ever turning out, especially in traditional south. We've seen some ridiculous numbers out of Georgia, NC, and SC.(Hoping it extends to Florida.)

    And, I'm still a little skeptical at this point of projecting too much of this forward.

    I think if they get big youth vote it will carry and stay Dem, that's been the pattern for decades and decades, but alot of the 30-50 voters may just cross over for an election or two.

    One of the real curiosities is whether all these folks turning out for Obama will feel their power as so many local races shift.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 2:17 PM  

  • from fivethirtyeight.com comments:

    Turn out Demographics:

    Black Female
    Black Male
    White Female
    White Male
    Asia-PI Female
    Asia-PI Male
    Hisp-Lt Female
    Hisp-Lt Male
    Native AM Female
    Native AM Male

    23% of early voters self-identify as AA in GA. The Obama base again seems to be turning out early.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale, at 2:47 PM  

  • I don't know what that's built off of, but I thought saw a far higher number in one of these articles on AA in Ga. something like 30%.

    Voting Rights act, so race is tracked by the Sec State. Should be posted by tonight, tomorrow.

    (I might be confusing some of the NC numbers, too.)

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 3:49 PM  

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