I believe in the machine

The ground game will certainly be different from state to state, but based on the enthusiasm numbers alone, I find it impossible to believe that the McCain folks will turnout better than the Obama folks, especially with the sense of inevitability creeping in.

I think the Obama turnout will keep the results at the polling levels or above varying somewhat by state. (People want to vote for Obama.)

And, for some reason I can't explain, I have a feeling that women will turn out slightly higher than normal. Hispanics, too.