Predictions post -
This is for fun, don't kill yourself. Feel free to skip categories you don't want to do. The point of this is to have fun, and start discussion. There are no prizes or penalties, and nobody makes fun of anybody or they're deleted. (And, if you just want to talk s**t, this is a good place, too.)
1) Presidential winner. Popular vote. Electoral College. (Individual states if you want to go that deep.)
(Obama, 53.5% - 45.5%, EV 364-174. He wins Oh, Fla, Va, Nv, Colo, NM. +North Carolina and either Indiana or Missouri.)
2) Congressional pickups. (+27)
3) Senate pickups. (+7, with Georgia going to runoff.)
4) The state(s) you think will be a surprise (either way.)
(I'm really hoping Georgia might flip, just for shock.)
5) Turnout. (And any demographic subgroups.)
(High, 140+ million. I think women will vote heavier than expected, and Hispanics. Youth vote will be up.)
6) Any other surprises?
7) What time is the race called? (8:40 PM EST.)
8) Stupid media stuff: Personality X says whatever. How long until the conservative pundits start complimenting the Obama campaign? What makes Bill Bennett cry?
And, What local or national race do you really care about?
(I really want to see my local House race go Skelly, although he's down -8. I'd also like to see Michelle Bachman lose.)
1) Presidential winner. Popular vote. Electoral College. (Individual states if you want to go that deep.)
(Obama, 53.5% - 45.5%, EV 364-174. He wins Oh, Fla, Va, Nv, Colo, NM. +North Carolina and either Indiana or Missouri.)
2) Congressional pickups. (+27)
3) Senate pickups. (+7, with Georgia going to runoff.)
4) The state(s) you think will be a surprise (either way.)
(I'm really hoping Georgia might flip, just for shock.)
5) Turnout. (And any demographic subgroups.)
(High, 140+ million. I think women will vote heavier than expected, and Hispanics. Youth vote will be up.)
6) Any other surprises?
7) What time is the race called? (8:40 PM EST.)
8) Stupid media stuff: Personality X says whatever. How long until the conservative pundits start complimenting the Obama campaign? What makes Bill Bennett cry?
And, What local or national race do you really care about?
(I really want to see my local House race go Skelly, although he's down -8. I'd also like to see Michelle Bachman lose.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:44 AM
5 Comments:
1) EV Obama 318, McCain 220. McCain gets the northern plains and mtn states: MT, ND. Also if McCain 527s are running the Rev. Wright ads in MO, OH, IN, WV, then these states revert to form and go to McCain. Maybe MO doesn't got McCain.
Obama gets, FL, NV, CO, VA and maybe NC.
Popular vote will go Obama 54, McCain 45. The popular vote will reflect the surge in first time voters. While helping Obama seal the"mandated" of popularity, the new voters will only have marginal affect on the EV count.
2,3) Senate and House pickups...? I'm too ignorant to predict. I think Dole loses in NC, however. In NH I think Sununu loses to Shaheen. I don't think Sununu's negative ads work well and Shaheen/DSCC have some pretty tough ads tying Sununu to Bush.
4) The surprise will be that McCain closed a lot better than pundits expected. The non-surprise surprise will be that the youth vote will be only marginally better than 2004... no c-change here.
5) Turnout will be huge. I think around 60% ... A participation rate we haven't seen since the 1960s.
6) Race will be called at 9:57 EST. Races in NC, VA and OH will be too close to call, so we'll have to see how the Central Time states go, particularly MO and ND.
Comments:
The real change of this election will not be that a bi-racial man is elected POTUS, but that ugly, virulent bigotry of the racism has been given a legitimate platform in Sarah Palin and the Christianist wing of the republican party. Look for this group to be further encouraged in the months following the election. Look for right-wing hate radio to sink to new depth.
The good news, I think, will be that these haters, and McCarthyist dividers of a nation, will be suffocated by a blanket of reason and reality as Obama demonstrates his ability to govern with respect for diversity of opinions. My hope, anyway... And let us all pray that by 2010 FoxNews reorganizes as a home shopping network after seeing it's viewership drop precipitously over the next 18-24 months.
By
-epm, at 8:25 AM
1) I find it interesting that you see that big of a popular vote, but still losing all those states.
I'm laying alot of my prediction on turnout/ground game. Just on the anecdotals I'm hearing, I'm expecting big Obama turnout, especially in the targeted states.
And, I'll be really curious about first time voters vs young voters. How many first timers won't be "young."
2) I'm not a house or senate expert either, although I agree with both your picks.
4) That's a supposition either way. I'm believing that Obama turnout will mask any McCain ground gained (2 points?)
6) Not at all unrealistic. It's just my sense that one of those 6 early states will be called fairly early. I guess that probably doesn't mean an official call, but I think the pundits start saying it's over around 8:30.
....
PS. Fox will probably do better as an "opposition" network. That's an easier role than supporting.
By
mikevotes, at 10:17 AM
"I find it interesting that you see that big of a popular vote, but still losing all those states."
Yeah, I don't know. I'm pullin' most of this outa my butt. You know how in the primaries Obama sometimes got these crazy-huge majorities? I think that might happen in some blue states, but it won't be reflected in the EV because the EV is the EV if you win 50%+1 or 80% of the popular vote. The blue states tend to be the larger populous states. So these two factors (in my mind) are how I ended up with my predictions, er, guesses.
In general, I see Obama winning states by a larger spread than McCain and this spread in the popular vote isn't necessarily indicated in the EV.
By
-epm, at 7:12 PM
I was simply pulling it out of the air, too.
And I get your point about big wins in California/New York. I just thought it was an interesting gap.
By
mikevotes, at 9:17 PM
I was simply pulling it out of the air, too.
And I get your point about big wins in California/New York. I just thought it was an interesting gap.
By
mikevotes, at 9:17 PM
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