Tipping over 270 in Florida
A little bit from Marc Ambinder: Steve Hildebrand and Paul Tewes, two big, national Obama guys are heading to Florida. Hildebrand out of Miami, and Tewes out of the critical Tampa area.
As Obama has so many other paths without Florida, I think you have to see this as an offensive move.
Also, an interesting look into the mechanics of the Ohio groundgame. (The strategy of a "community organizer.")
And, Kos looks at the state by state ad spending, McCain is spending 16% of his budget on national ads, Obama 1.7%.
Both will work with Obama state director Steve Schale, who has put together the biggest field team ever field by a party, Republican or Democratic. There are more than 50 open field offices and more than 10,000 active volunteers. In addition, the Obama campaign is outspending McCain on television in the expensive state by a factor of five to one, records show.
As Obama has so many other paths without Florida, I think you have to see this as an offensive move.
Also, an interesting look into the mechanics of the Ohio groundgame. (The strategy of a "community organizer.")
And, Kos looks at the state by state ad spending, McCain is spending 16% of his budget on national ads, Obama 1.7%.
posted by mikevotes at
6:00 PM
5 Comments:
o.k. question. If Obama wins Florida, is it pretty much over?
It seems that way, but is it true?
By
Praguetwin, at 9:03 PM
Yes. Florida is 27 electoral votes. He could win Fla, lose Pa. and just hold all the states where he's up 5 or more and still win.
He could win Fla and lose Colorado and Minnesota or Wisconsin and still win.
Florida is by far the biggest available tossup.
If by 8 PM election night, assuming today's map, if they project Fla to Obama, they will also project an Obama overall win.
So, a long way from today, but, yes, Fla would be decisive.
(Psychologically, too because it's the famous Bush v Gore state.)
By
mikevotes, at 9:12 PM
epm wrote:
If Obama wins Florida, is it pretty much over?
Realistically, yes.
No way is McCain winning PA. The last six polls there were double digit Obama, except for one Rasmussen poll at O +8 (9/28). No wait...Rasmussen just polled PA O +10 two days ago.
No chance. No way.
Again with MN? MPR polled it O +14 three days ago. Rasmussen just released O +7 today (down a point since a month ago). CNN O +12 (9/29).
It's not happening for McCain.
Wisconsin? Rasmussen today polls O +10. McCain has never once led in any WI polling. Three days ago CNN said O +8. Two days ago R2K said O +10.
Uh-uh. Nope.
Obama has 259 EV (MI, PA, NH, IA included).
If McCain loses FL, he loses the election, even if he were somehow able to hold on to all of the other swing states.
Likewise if he loses any single one of these: OH, NC, VA, IN, or MO.
There are also combinations of NV, CO, and NM - again, even if McCain were to somehow win all of the other six individual "do-or-die" states.
Call "heads" and flip a coin six times. If all six are "heads", then McCain wins. But that excludes the "western option" of CO + NM or CO + NV.
NM + NV is a tie.
Florida is a trap to get McCain to devote his thin resources to one "do-or-die" state. Obama is dumping $39 million and has 50 offices in FL. McCain has to win it, and by winning it he neglects the five other "must win" states.
IN is now within the MOE at M +2 or +3.
Rasmussen puts NV at O +4 (10/2), and VA at O +2 (10/5), and MO at O +3 (10/5).
Not sure bets, but Obama only has to win one of the four to win the election.
OH is at M +1 (Rasmussen 10/5) - within the MOE. CNN shows O +3 (10/5).
Again, if McCain loses OH while holding on to all of the other five states, then Obama wins.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:15 PM
OK, I just realised your point on WI/MN/PA was that Obama could afford to lose them if he won FL.... Not that he would lose them. Sorry about that.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:20 PM
Yeah, sorry.
Yeah, barring a meteor or little green men, I don't think he loses any of those rustbelts except maybe Indiana (which he might win, too depending on the next 3 1/2 weeks.)
My hunch right now is that he wins Ohio if we're about here on election day.
Obama's probably going to lose one of those tossups where he's up by a little, NC, Nv, somewhere, just because, BUT he's certainly not going to lose all of them. (Or even most of them.)
I'm definitely in the "it's over without a meteor" camp.
But, back to the main point, Fla. guarantees a big win.
By
mikevotes, at 7:12 AM
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