"Running through the tape"
At a fundraiser this morning, Obama warns
First off, I love the visual imagery of the phrase "running through the tape."
But, secondly, from a "body language" standpoint, what does this tell you about how the Obama folks think they're doing?
(Also, it may be a feint or media play, but I've seen a couple of rumors that Obama may be going back into Georgia and N. Dakota and maybe even W. Virgina and Kentucky.)
Later: AP carries the map expansion rumor and says Obama is launching TV in West Virginia. (Note, this could well be for the surrounding states.)
“For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire..."
He added, “That’s another good lesson that Hillary Clinton taught me, so we want to make sure that we are closing strong, running through the tape.”
First off, I love the visual imagery of the phrase "running through the tape."
But, secondly, from a "body language" standpoint, what does this tell you about how the Obama folks think they're doing?
(Also, it may be a feint or media play, but I've seen a couple of rumors that Obama may be going back into Georgia and N. Dakota and maybe even W. Virgina and Kentucky.)
Later: AP carries the map expansion rumor and says Obama is launching TV in West Virginia. (Note, this could well be for the surrounding states.)
posted by mikevotes at
9:05 AM
4 Comments:
I've been a big fan of the "feint" for some time now in this election, but the McCain campaign usually fails to take the bait. Generally they seem to believe that the 2004 map is writ in stone, and that those states that went red in 2004 will automatically vote Republican in 2008. The result is that they aren't goaded into spending more in non-battleground states by these feints.
Meanwhile, ND and WV really are "in play", believe it or not. GA is a long-shot, but the large minority population there makes it a possibility. Obama has made great gains at the margins in states that Republicans have over-confidently assumed will continue to "go red", and the sum total of "coin flips" adds a large element of uncertainty to whatever delusional strategy the McCain campaign is employing.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 9:35 AM
I definitely like the idea of not getting cocky. Very refreshing.
By
Anonymous, at 10:50 AM
Todd, the only problem with the feint as a spending trick this year is that the internet coverage kinda moots it because within a day or because sooner or later somebody has to come out and confirm or deny.
However, since Obama does apparently have money to burn, he could back that up with some ad buys, if the feint is worth that.
I saw those latest "in play" polls for WV and ND, and you know how I am about one or two polls, but it wouldn't surprise me if both of those were back in because they were sympathetic in the past and thus more likely to be available.
And, the early reporting out of Georgia is that black turnout in early voting is well beyond expectations. I don't know if that brings it across the the line, but it could make it close enough to try (or feint.) Again, if you've got the money.....
And, I think the McCain strategy is pretty dead. They were working on the assumption they could get the national polling down to 1 or 2 and that the states would follow, and, they would win all the close ones. I think that delusion is over.
Also, just as a stray thought, Obama may be trying to "run up the score" so he has more of a mandate when he comes in.
.....
Anon, That's a real danger. Don't want to be seen "measuring the drapes," and taking it for granted. Not likely to swing votes, but it could tinge media coverage.
By
mikevotes, at 11:02 AM
They were working on the assumption they could get the national polling down to 1 or 2 and that the states would follow, and, they would win all the close ones. I think that delusion is over.
It might be over, but they are still campaigning in and ostensibly hoping to win in MN, WI, PA, and even IA while assuming that their (over-rated) ground game will hold the line in all of the "red states".
They are still on the offense, which makes a feint unlikely to work because they don't see a need to play defence.
Florida isn't a feint any longer, though. Obama is ahead (+5) in a very expensive media market. VA is slipping away (O +3), and the GOP is still just trying to rally the base and thinking that will be good enough.
MO is O +3 in Rasmussen today, and CO is O +6 (10/6 Rasmussen).
And today McCain campaigned in PA (O +13) instead of any of the states I just mentioned. It's all offense for them.
That's why I get excited at the potential on the margins, because McCain doesn't seem willing to defend them, even a little bit.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 12:46 AM
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