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Born at the Crest of the Empire

Thursday, October 02, 2008

McCain's map, as layed out by his campaign strategists

If you're watching the electoral map, take a minute to read this Politico piece where the McCain folks describe their path to victory.
Sen. John McCain now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says." (Using McCain friendly RCP ,
Pa (Obama +7.9,) Wis (Obama + 5.0,) Minn (Obama +5.7.))....

McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

“We can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire,” the official said. (Nv 5 EV (Obama +0.5,)
Co 9 EV (Obama +4.4,) NH 4 EV (Obama +1.3))


And that assumes McCain wins Ohio (Obama +2,) Florida (Obama +3,) Missouri (McCain +1.7,) Virginia (Obama +2.4,) and North Carolina (Obama +0.5) all without a single miss.

posted by mikevotes at 5:41 PM

4 Comments:

  • It would be generous to say that McCain could win 3 of the 5 "assumed" states, much less the rest.

    MN, WI, and PA are out of his reach. No way.

    And note that he would have to take at least two of the three "dig up" up states, which must include Colorado.

    Those numbers from RCP are bogus, anyway.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 7:57 PM  

  • That's exactly where I am. I just thought it was really interesting to hear them try to lay out the case.

    (And I too view the RCP numbers with skepticism, but I figured using them would give the most friendly to McCain version.

    Especially as I was pointing out that it couldn't happen (even with the friendliest numbers.))

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 9:11 PM  

  • I just thought it was really interesting to hear them try to lay out the case.

    It was; don't get me wrong.
    I've been wondering how even The Faithful could believe that McCain still had a chance. The answer apparently is magical thinking and manipulation of polling data.

    By Blogger Todd Dugdale , at 8:37 AM  

  • I was talking to one of the real believers this morning.

    He truly believes that the McCain camp will bring up Wright, Ayers, Rezco, etc and then nobody will ever want to vote for Obama.

    By Blogger mikevotes, at 11:14 AM  

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