It's over
I'm not doing much blogging on the polls, because for all practical purposes, this thing is over.
(And if you don't believe me, just look at the McCain campaign's body language, infighting and blame, giving up on critical states, a tiny election night party, and people sending out resumes....)
The real question now will be margin and downballot races, and alot of both of these will be determined by whether and to what degree the Obama machine can deliver the ground game they've been talking about for months.
It's my belief that most of America has decided, (or at least received all the information they want about the candidates,) and that the media has now reasonably moved on to process and horserace coverage. If America's not listening, there's no way for McCain to get message traction, so, short of a meteor, the polls won't be moving too much.
(Although I am finding myself fascinated as the McCain campaign passes through the various stages of losing psychology.)
(And if you don't believe me, just look at the McCain campaign's body language, infighting and blame, giving up on critical states, a tiny election night party, and people sending out resumes....)
The real question now will be margin and downballot races, and alot of both of these will be determined by whether and to what degree the Obama machine can deliver the ground game they've been talking about for months.
It's my belief that most of America has decided, (or at least received all the information they want about the candidates,) and that the media has now reasonably moved on to process and horserace coverage. If America's not listening, there's no way for McCain to get message traction, so, short of a meteor, the polls won't be moving too much.
(Although I am finding myself fascinated as the McCain campaign passes through the various stages of losing psychology.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:20 AM
5 Comments:
"I'm not doing much blogging on the polls, because for all practical purposes, this thing is over."
I so want you to be right. I'm less convinced.
By
Anonymous, at 10:51 AM
Meanwhile, McCain is in Iowa today.
R2K polled him fifteen points behind Obama in Iowa yesterday.
And it's not as if he's never been to Iowa, either. He seems to go there every other week. It's kind of strange.
It's my belief that most of America has decided
The polling is showing very small percentages of "undecided" voters - around 5% - left. The best that McCain could realistically hope for is a 60/40 split, or 3%.
But the national trackers are not the relevant measurement; it's the state polling that matters. VA and CO are already out of McCain's hands, which means he can't reach 270. Obama's "base" states are exceptionally strong; PA is a lost cause for McCain.
But you know this already. I digress.
My point is that the interesting part (to me, at least) will be to see how many more "red" states will drop off, and how close will the margins be in the states that McCain does hold on to. Those results will really be the "new 2004" for the mid-terms and 2012.
There are a lot of "red" states that McCain only holds by single digits, or by less than 15, even after a year of consolidation and campaigning. Those are potentially vulnerable. Of course, that is looking far into the future and assuming that Obama doesn't have a disastrous first term, but the potential is there.
And that is where the excitement lies in this race now that "it's over".
By
Todd Dugdale , at 10:52 AM
ANon, maybe I should rephrase. So long as the polls are where they are there's no point blogging on the polls.
...
Todd, I shorthanded that "Americans have decided" a bit for brevity. The bottom line is that nobody is looking for new information on these guys. With the saturation and the interest this year, I'm looking at undecided as leaning, but for some reason uncommitted.
And, There are states, like Georgia, that are polling single digits right now. In theory, those are available, but we'll have to wait and see.
Alto of those states weren't getting as much national turnout support. For those to flip, people will pretty much have to turnout themselves.
Not impossible, but a very different model than Florida as we were discussing the other day.
....
And, just as an aside, I think the national polls do matter because they hammer into the campaign narrative, which then affects perceptions which can then affect states.
Plus, national margin gives mandate.
By
mikevotes, at 11:29 AM
There are states, like Georgia, that are polling single digits right now. In theory, those are available, but we'll have to wait and see.
The point I was making is that states like GA, AZ, MT, ND, SD, WV will be the future swing states in the mid-terms or in 2012...or at least, potentially. That's about 40 EVs.
I'm not imagining they will flip this year, but they will be vulnerable in the future. The GOP will probably have to campaign in and fight for them next time. Certainly MO, IN, VA, NC, or NV can no longer be taken for granted by the Republicans, whatever happens on election day. It just got a lot more expensive for the GOP to run a national campaign in 2012.
Unless Obama has a disastrous first term, of course.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 5:48 PM
Todd, I'm not so convinced about that. I think we're at an extreme point and there will likely be some (not complete) pull back to norm.
Va, Colo, NV have been trending Dem, but I'm not sold that the people of Missouri won't (to some degree) snap back a bit.
My hunch is that we're probably at a high water mark, maybe now, maybe in the next midterms.
Just an opinion. No clear way to resolve it from here.
By
mikevotes, at 6:11 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home