Let's count some damn chickens.....
Way ahead of ourselves, and I doubt they'll all be called immediately on poll closings, but Indiana, Virginia close at 7PM EST, Ohio and North Carolina close at 7:30PM, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania close at 8PM.
Just about any one of those ruins the race for McCain. It's very possible that we could have a declared winner before I eat dinner.
(Once again, take just a minute to play with the electoral map.
It'll give you a much better sense of how good it looks.)
Just about any one of those ruins the race for McCain. It's very possible that we could have a declared winner before I eat dinner.
(Once again, take just a minute to play with the electoral map.
It'll give you a much better sense of how good it looks.)
posted by mikevotes at
6:05 PM
3 Comments:
I was going to mention this a few days ago, but it sounded a little presumptuous.
It is true, though.
All of the states that will swing this are in the Eastern and Central time zones. CA is a given, as is WA and OR. Obama doesn't need CO and NM to win; they are "icing on the cake".
The "Kerry states" are so strong for Obama, and McCain's path to victory so narrow, that the results from a relative few states will determine the outcome fairly quickly.
If NC and VA are lost to McCain, it is over. There are no "Kerry states" to flip, short of massive and obvious vote-tampering.
Exit polling will be questionable due to the large amount of early voting, but the real nail-biter will be how many states have slipped out of the "red state" category and how low Republican turnout is. Look for a lot of mention of ACORN and vote fraud from Republican talking heads, bolstered by 2004 results.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 8:56 AM
Yeah, I've had this post written for a week, and have been waiting for the right moment to put it up.
I think we're at the point now where we're near inevitability.
As you know, McCain has to win every one of those states listed, and the odds of that are incredibly long with Ohio at least +6, Florida plus a couple and Va and PA looking out of reach.
And that leaves out all the +1 to +3's like NC, Indiana, Mo... that could easily go either way.
And, to me, the bottom line in all this is that even if all those states were true tossups, just statistically it is unlikely McCain would win them all, would win that whole string. And that's assuming they were all tossups which they aren't.
By
mikevotes, at 9:02 AM
Oh, and out west looks really solid, too. The closing Arizona polls give me heart, not necessarily for winning Arizona, but for what that's likely saying about NM, Colo, and NV.
You gotta figure a tightening AZ means those are trending the right way.
By
mikevotes, at 9:04 AM
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