A nasty narrative for McCain
If the national polls do continue to show a return to Obama +4 or +5, that sets up a rather nasty headwind narrative for McCain that Obama +5 is the equilibrium of the race. We also likely get the reinforcing line that the bounce was more convention than Palin.
That narrative sets McCain up as losing despite his efforts. It sets up the idea of a firmness of Obama +5 and the idea of a fairly stable equilibrium. It raises expectations on the debates (he MUST do something,) and it minimizes any recent polling gains as a convention "bounce," nothing more.
If the big polling does bear out Obama +4 or +5, it puts McCain in a narrative of firmly losing, just a month and a half before the election.
(Also, Is the Republican enthusiasm really just about Palin? Or is/was part of it about Republicans' sudden, and self surprising belief they might actually win? If the narrative becomes "losing," how much of that enthusiasm goes away?)
Also, does the perception that McCain is weak on the economy undermine McCain's 3 AM phone call qualification?
(Housekeeping: Blogger's screwy, so I'm not really getting rewrites. This is a first draft, so accept it as such.)
That narrative sets McCain up as losing despite his efforts. It sets up the idea of a firmness of Obama +5 and the idea of a fairly stable equilibrium. It raises expectations on the debates (he MUST do something,) and it minimizes any recent polling gains as a convention "bounce," nothing more.
If the big polling does bear out Obama +4 or +5, it puts McCain in a narrative of firmly losing, just a month and a half before the election.
(Also, Is the Republican enthusiasm really just about Palin? Or is/was part of it about Republicans' sudden, and self surprising belief they might actually win? If the narrative becomes "losing," how much of that enthusiasm goes away?)
Also, does the perception that McCain is weak on the economy undermine McCain's 3 AM phone call qualification?
(Housekeeping: Blogger's screwy, so I'm not really getting rewrites. This is a first draft, so accept it as such.)
posted by mikevotes at
7:45 AM
5 Comments:
Given the Bradley effect, 5 points may not be enough.
By
Lex Alexander, at 10:58 AM
Palin's fav/unfav numbers continue to track down. She peaked at the convention and went down from there. Whatever affect she'll have in the campaign will be restricted to GOP base voters...
McCain continues to devolve as a candidate. He's been snippy and a bit of a prick in interviews... biting the hand that feeds him. People don't mind a sharp wit, but if you're just a prick... not so much.
These joint Palin/McCain appearances are not good for him. He comes across as the past-prime star in the shadow of Palin's raw charisma... Like an aging Borsht-Belt comedian who hasn't gotten the fact his schtick isn't funny anymore.
Obama still needs to pull those conservative Dems over the line. He needs to somehow get them to see what Wick Allison (from your link below) sees in an Obama presidency. Hard task to inform the low information voters to be sure, but if his campaign can do that, then it's Obama in a landslide.
And then there's the debates and the long wake of talking head buzz and video loops that will follow. Potentially tricky for each candidate, but a chance for Obama to show he's not a "scary black man" looking to "negroize" America. Nor is he "the most liberal senator in the Senate." Since all previous debates have been primary debates -- attracting mostly a single-party audience -- this will be the fist time many lay-Republicans will see Obama unfiltered. It's possible these viewers will realize they're seeing a man who bears no resemblance to the bogey-man constructed by the GOP ad machine. It's possible they'll feel less inclined to "fear" an Obama presidency... and less inclined to feel the need to vote against him.
Of course, this is America -- land of the intentionally ignorant (and proud of it!) -- so I'm not making any predictions.
By
-epm, at 11:11 AM
See, I don't think there's going to be that big of a "Bradley effect" because the "inexperience" thing gives those people an acceptable way to express their racism.
Their racism leads them to believe a black man, any black man, isn't capable of being president, so they can just cite under the partial code word of "inexperience."
Know what I mean?
By
mikevotes, at 11:12 AM
EPM, Just broadly answering, that's really the question. How do the undeclared "lean." Are there doubts about Obama serious enough that when put to the binary test (rather than being given the option of undecided) that they actually pull the lever against Obama.
Not well written. Better said, are they McCain undecided unsure of whether to vote for him (why?,) or Obama undecided worried about experience or whatever.
By
mikevotes, at 2:59 PM
Rev. Wright also provided an easy way out for racists to dismiss Obama for non-racist reasons. They aren't 'racist'; they are 'patriotic'. Much better.
The Bradley Effect is a myth. Most of the people who use the term don't understand what it means, and use it as a polite term for "racism" and are oblivious to the idea that it ostensibly makes Obama appear more popular than he really is.
By
Todd Dugdale , at 3:25 PM
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